用带时间记忆的Transformer模拟对流过程,更稳定准确。
climt-paraformer: Stable Emulation of Convective Parameterization using a Temporal Memory-aware Transformer

- 引入时间记忆机制的Transformer,捕捉对流演化中的时序依赖。
- 在单柱模型中,100分钟记忆长度表现最佳,误差低于基线模型。
- 适合气候模拟、机器学习驱动的物理建模研究者参考。
准确表示湿对流等亚网格过程仍是全球气候模型的重大挑战,传统参数化方案计算成本高且难以扩展。神经网络(NN)代理模型通过学习大气状态与对流倾向之间的高效映射,提供了有前景的替代方案,同时保持对物理规律的忠实性。然而,现有基于神经网络的参数化多为无记忆模型,仅依赖瞬时输入,而对流随时间演变且依赖历史状态。近期研究虽引入对流记忆,但通常将历史状态视为独立特征,未显式建模时序依赖。本文提出一种面向Emanuel对流参数化的时序记忆感知Transformer代理模型,并在单柱气候模型(SCM)中进行离线与在线配置评估。该Transformer能有效捕捉连续大气状态间的时序相关性与非线性交互。相比基准模型(包括无记忆的多层感知机和循环的LSTM),其离线误差更低。敏感性分析表明,约100分钟的记忆长度性能最优,更长记忆反而降低表现。进一步在长期耦合模拟中测试,模型在长达10年的运行中保持稳定。结果表明,显式建模时间依赖对神经网络参数化至关重要。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate representation of moist convective sub-grid-scale processes remains a major challenge in global climate models, as traditional parameterization schemes are both computationally expensive and difficult to scale. Neural network (NN) emulators offer a promising alternative by learning efficient mappings between atmospheric states and convective tendencies while retaining fidelity to the underlying physics. However, most existing NN-based parameterizations are memory-less and rely only on instantaneous inputs, even though convection evolves over time and depends on prior atmospheric states. Recent studies have begun to incorporate convective memory, but they often treat past states as independent features rather than modeling temporal dependencies explicitly. In this work, we develop a temporal memory-aware Transformer emulator for the Emanuel convective parameterization and evaluate it in a single-column climate model (SCM) under both offline and online configurations. The Transformer captures temporal correlations and nonlinear interactions across consecutive atmospheric states. Compared with baseline emulators, including a memory-less multilayer perceptron and a recurrent long short-term memory model, the Transformer achieves lower offline errors. Sensitivity analysis indicates that a memory length of approximately 100 minutes yields the best performance, whereas longer memory degrades performance. We further test the emulator in long-term coupled simulations and show that it remains stable over 10 years. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of explicit temporal modeling for NN-based parameterizations.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。