研究政府更替下AI合规设计如何被后续政权利用
AI Governance under Political Turnover: The Alignment Surface of Compliance Design
- 构建制度模型分析自动化程度、规则编码与迭代使用约束的权衡
- 发现初期提升监督的改革可能反而加剧后续政权操控风险
- 适合关注公共治理、政策执行与AI伦理的学者和决策者
政府越来越希望通过人工智能实现行政决策的低成本、高可扩展性和一致性。但概率性AI若要融入公共管理，必须嵌入一个合规层，确保决策可审查、可重复且具有法律依据。该合规层虽能增强监管透明度，便于发现违规行为，但也可能形成稳定的审批边界，使继任政权学会在不突破表面合法性的情况下进行策略性操作。本文建立了一个形式化模型，分析机构在自动化规模、规则编码程度及迭代使用约束三方面的选择。结果显示，这些系统可能因内部战略行为而变得脆弱；初期改善监督的改革反而会增加后期被滥用的风险；同时，一旦扩大AI应用，未来就难以逆转。因此，使AI更具可用性，也可能让后续政府更容易学习并利用其运作机制。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Governments are increasingly interested in using AI to make administrative decisions cheaper, more scalable, and more consistent. But for probabilistic AI to be incorporated into public administration it must be embedded in a compliance layer that makes decisions reviewable, repeatable, and legally defensible. That layer can improve oversight by making departures from law easier to detect. But it can also create a stable approval boundary that political successors learn to navigate while preserving the appearance of lawful administration. We develop a formal model in which institutions choose the scale of automation, the degree of codification, and safeguards on iterative use. The model shows when these systems become vulnerable to strategic use from within government, why reforms that initially improve oversight can later increase that vulnerability, and why expansions in AI use may be difficult to unwind. Making AI usable can thus make procedures easier for future governments to learn and exploit.
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