构建首个软件故障时间序列问答基准,评估模型对异常的推理能力。
ARFBench: Benchmarking Time Series Question Answering Ability for Software Incident Response

- 设计多模态基础模型在真实生产数据上的时间序列异常问答测试集。
- 顶尖视觉语言模型达62.7%准确率,混合模型在小样本下表现接近前沿水平。
- 模型与专家互补,联合决策突破人类上限,适合系统监控与AI可解释性研究者。
时间序列问答(TSQA)是一种让基础模型通过自然语言提问来推断和分析时间序列特性的新能力,潜力巨大但尚未充分探索。本文提出ARFBench,一个评估多模态基础模型(FMs)在软件故障数据中常见时间序列异常理解能力的基准。该基准包含来自Datadog内部遥测数据的63个生产事件,覆盖142个时间序列、538万条数据点,共750个问题。我们评估了领先的专有和开源大语言模型(LLMs)、视觉语言模型(VLMs)及时间序列基础模型,发现前沿VLM显著优于基线模型,其中最佳模型(GPT-5)达到62.7%准确率和51.9% F1。随后我们展示专用多模态方法的潜力:开发一种新型TSFM+VLM混合原型,在少量合成与真实数据上微调后,实现与前沿模型相当的整体F1和准确率。最后,我们发现模型与领域专家具有互补优势,构建模型-专家联合选择器(model-expert oracle),在两项指标上分别达到82.8% F1和87.2%准确率,建立新的超人类基准。基准已开源:https://huggingface.co/datasets/Datadog/ARFBench。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series question-answering (TSQA), in which we ask natural language questions to infer and reason about properties of time series, is a promising yet underexplored capability of foundation models. In this work, we present ARFBench, a TSQA benchmark that evaluates the understanding of multimodal foundation models (FMs) on time series anomalies prevalent in software incident data. ARFBench consists of 750 questions across 142 time series and 5.38M data points from 63 production incidents sourced exclusively from internal telemetry at Datadog. We evaluate leading proprietary and open-source LLMs, VLMs, and time series FMs and observe that frontier VLMs perform markedly better than existing baselines; the leading model (GPT-5) achieves a 62.7% accuracy and 51.9% F1. We next demonstrate the promise of specialized multimodal approaches. We develop a novel TSFM + VLM hybrid prototype which we post-train on a small set of synthetic and real data that yields comparable overall F1 and accuracy with frontier models. Lastly, we find models and human domain experts exhibit complementary strengths. We define a model-expert oracle, a best-of-2 oracle selector over model and expert answers, yielding 82.8% F1 and 87.2% accuracy and establishing a new superhuman frontier for future TSQA models. The benchmark is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Datadog/ARFBench.
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