arXiv:2604.21334cs.AIcs.CE2026-04中稿 · COLM

LLMs在经济因果推理中存在意识形态偏见,更倾向支持政府干预观点。

Ideological Bias in LLMs' Economic Causal Reasoning

论文配图:Ideological Bias in LLMs' Economic Causal Reasoning
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过扩展基准测试,对比政府干预与市场导向两种立场下的因果判断
  • 20个主流模型中18个在支持政府干预时准确率更高,错误也多偏向该方向
  • 提示工程无法消除偏见,需在政策分析中关注方向性评估

大型语言模型(LLMs)在进行经济因果推理时是否表现出系统性意识形态偏见?随着LLMs越来越多地用于政策分析和经济报道,方向正确的因果判断至关重要。我们通过扩展EconCausal基准,引入意识形态争议案例——即干预型(亲政府)与市场型(亲市场)视角预测因果方向相反的情况。从顶级经济学与金融期刊中提取的10,490个因果三元组(处理-结果对,具有实证验证的效应方向)中,识别出1,056个意识形态争议实例,并评估20个最先进的LLMs预测实证支持因果方向的能力。结果显示,争议类题目普遍更难,且在18/20个模型中,当实证因果方向符合干预型预期时,准确率显著更高;模型出错时,错误预测也明显偏向干预型,且单次上下文提示无法消除这种方向性偏差。这表明LLMs不仅在意识形态争议性经济问题上准确性较低,而且在某一意识形态方向上系统性不可靠,凸显高风险经济与政策场景下需开展方向感知型评估。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Do large language models (LLMs) exhibit systematic ideological bias when reasoning about economic causal effects? As LLMs are increasingly used in policy analysis and economic reporting, where directionally correct causal judgments are essential, this question has direct practical stakes. We present a systematic evaluation by extending the EconCausal benchmark with ideology-contested cases - instances where intervention-oriented (pro-government) and market-oriented (pro-market) perspectives predict divergent causal signs. From 10,490 causal triplets (treatment-outcome pairs with empirically verified effect directions) derived from top-tier economics and finance journals, we identify 1,056 ideology-contested instances and evaluate 20 state-of-the-art LLMs on their ability to predict empirically supported causal directions. We find that ideology-contested items are consistently harder than non-contested ones, and that across 18 of 20 models, accuracy is systematically higher when the empirically verified causal sign aligns with intervention-oriented expectations than with market-oriented ones. Moreover, when models err, their incorrect predictions disproportionately lean intervention-oriented, and this directional skew is not eliminated by one-shot in-context prompting. These results highlight that LLMs are not only less accurate on ideologically contested economic questions, but systematically less reliable in one ideological direction than the other, underscoring the need for direction-aware evaluation in high-stakes economic and policy settings.

大模型因果推理意识形态偏见经济决策

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