设计激励机制促进企业间风险信息共享,避免因私利导致信息隐瞒或破坏。
Mechanism Design for Decentralized Risk Detection: Strict Propriety, Network Coalitions, and the Backfiring Mandat
- 用严格正确的评分规则动态奖励企业,鼓励真实上报风险判断。
- 在大型联盟中,机制可实现唯一最优的诚实报告,小系统误差小于1/m。
- 揭示强制共享可能适得其反,适合反洗钱、网络安全等场景应用。
多个竞争企业共享高风险客户群体时,各自掌握碎片化信息,聚合后具有社会价值,但私人利益阻碍真实共享。本文提出一种动态机制设计框架,识别出三大战略障碍:合规道德风险、对手适应与干预引发的信息破坏。时间价值分配(TVA)机制采用折扣验证结果的严格正确评分规则,可在假设条件下使企业真实报告后验概率成为贝叶斯-纳什均衡(大型联盟中唯一最优,有限系统中偏差为O(1/m))。网络谢泼德分析表明,在边加性联盟价值下,企业边际贡献与其加权跨企业交互度成正比,为联盟设计提供明确指引:应优先考虑跨企业交易量而非企业规模。将TVA嵌入企业竞争模型,比较了四种监管模式(自给自足、自愿联盟、强制全共享、TVA)的福利排序,发现缺乏相容激励设计的强制共享可能使福利低于自给自足状态——即“反向指令”现象。框架在140万笔合成反洗钱数据上验证,同样适用于平台欺诈、网络安全威胁情报及供应链风险检测。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Competing firms that share a population of risky customers face a decentralized risk detection problem in which each firm holds fragmentary information whose aggregation would generate social value, but private incentives impede truthful sharing. We develop a dynamic mechanism design framework for this setting and identify three strategic frictions that distinguish it from classical mechanism design with decentralized information: compliance moral hazard, adversarial adaptation, and information destruction through intervention. A temporal value assignment (TVA) mechanism credits firms using a strictly proper scoring rule applied to discounted verified outcomes; under stated assumptions, TVA implements truthful posterior reporting as a Bayes--Nash equilibrium (uniquely optimal at each edge in large federations, with $O(1/m)$ shading in finite systems). A network Shapley characterization shows that under edge-additive coalition value, each firm's marginal contribution is proportional to its weighted cross-firm interaction degree, yielding a sharp prescription for coalition design that prioritizes inter-firm volume over firm size. Embedding TVA in a model of competition among firms, we establish a welfare ordering across four regulatory regimes (autarky, voluntary federation, mandated full sharing, TVA) and identify conditions under which information-sharing mandates without compatible incentive design reduce welfare below autarky: a ``backfiring mandate.'' We illustrate the framework on a 1.4M-transaction synthetic anti-money-laundering benchmark; the same machinery extends to platform fraud, cybersecurity threat intelligence, and supply chain risk detection.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。