arXiv:2604.21893stat.MLcs.LG2026-04

用地理环境与影像数据提升车险索赔预测精度,突破位置信息受限难题。

Revealing Geography-Driven Signals in Zone-Level Claim Frequency Models: An Empirical Study using Environmental and Visual Predictors

论文配图:Revealing Geography-Driven Signals in Zone-Level Claim Frequency Models: An Empirical Study using Environmental and Visual Predictors
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过环境与影像数据构建地理特征,融入车险模型
  • 5公里尺度的环境特征+坐标使模型准确率显著提升
  • 影像嵌入仅在无环境数据时有效,适合低复杂度模型

地理背景对车险风险具有重要影响,但公开精算数据中位置信息有限,制约了其在索赔频率模型中的应用。本研究基于BeMTPL97数据集,采用区域级建模框架,在未见邮编上评估预测性能。通过OpenStreetMap、CORINE土地覆盖及比利时国家地理研究所发布的正射影像,从环境指标与图像嵌入两方面引入地理信息。对比广义线性模型(GLMs)、正则化GLMs与梯度提升树三类基线模型,发现将坐标与5公里尺度环境特征结合可显著提升线性与树模型表现;小范围邻域信息亦有助于基准模型优化。图像嵌入在已有环境特征时未能增益,但在缺乏环境特征时,预训练视觉变压器嵌入能提升正则化GLM的准确性与稳定性。结果表明,地理信息的预测价值更取决于表征方式而非模型复杂度,证明在个体空间信息受限下仍可有效融合地理上下文。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Geographic context is often consider relevant to motor insurance risk, yet public actuarial datasets provide limited location identifiers, constraining how this information can be incorporated and evaluated in claim-frequency models. This study examines how geographic information from alternative data sources can be incorporated into actuarial models for Motor Third Party Liability (MTPL) claim prediction under such constraints. Using the BeMTPL97 dataset, we adopt a zone-level modeling framework and evaluate predictive performance on unseen postcodes. Geographic information is introduced through two channels: environmental indicators from OpenStreetMap and CORINE Land Cover, and orthoimagery released by the Belgian National Geographic Institute for academic use. We evaluate the predictive contribution of coordinates, environmental features, and image embeddings across three baseline models: generalized linear models (GLMs), regularized GLMs, and gradient-boosted trees, while raw imagery is modeled using convolutional neural networks. Our results show that augmenting actuarial variables with constructed geographic information improves accuracy. Across experiments, both linear and tree-based models benefit most from combining coordinates with environmental features extracted at 5 km scale, while smaller neighborhoods also improve baseline specifications. Generally, image embeddings do not improve performance when environmental features are available; however, when such features are absent, pretrained vision-transformer embeddings enhance accuracy and stability for regularized GLMs. Our results show that the predictive value of geographic information in zone-level MTPL frequency models depends less on model complexity than on how geography is represented, and illustrate that geographic context can be incorporated despite limited individual-level spatial information.

车险建模地理信息多源数据融合影像嵌入

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