arXiv:2604.22818q-fin.TRcs.AI2026-04被引 1

AI交易模型越相似,市场越容易崩盘,因隐藏杠杆会突然引爆。

Representation Homogeneity and Systemic Instability in AI-Dominated Financial Markets: A Structural Approach

  • 用双层结构建模AI交易员,分离表示相似性与预测重合度
  • 表示同质性升高会加剧信念同步,导致波动集聚和流动性危机
  • 揭示低波动期隐性杠杆累积机制,适合监管科技与金融稳定研究者

本文研究人工智能交易代理在市场状态信息表示上的相似性如何引发金融市场系统性不稳定。我们构建了一个基于高频微观结构特征校准的多智能体市场结构模型。AI代理采用两层决策架构:非线性表示层将原始市场状态映射为高维特征向量,自适应线性读出层生成收益预测并输入风险控制交易规则。该表示基础的微观基础分离了文献中常被混淆的两个概念:表示同质性(代理将市场状态编码到相似特征空间的程度)与预测重合度(代理产生相似收益预测的程度)。理论上证明二者相关但不等价,且表示同质性可在压力时期压缩有效预测分歧空间,即使正常时期预测看似多样。通过控制因子实验,调节表示同质性并控制风险厌恶与学习率分布,我们发现表示相似性增强会放大信念与持仓同步,导致波动聚集、流动性紧张与尾部风险上升。结构机制表明,低感知波动时期可通过持仓粘性内生积累隐性杠杆,当冲击触发同步去杠杆时发生崩塌。结果为宏观审慎政策提供了结构性基础,旨在监控和保持AI系统对市场信息表示与处理的多样性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper investigates how similarity in the informational representation of market states among Artificial Intelligence (AI) trading agents can generate systemic instability in financial markets. We construct a structural multi-agent market model calibrated using high-frequency microstructural moments. AI agents are modeled through a two-layer decision architecture consisting of a nonlinear representation layer and an adaptive linear readout layer. The representation layer maps raw market states into high-dimensional feature vectors, while the readout layer generates return forecasts that feed into a risk-controlled trading rule. This representation-based microfoundation separates two objects that are often conflated in the literature: representation homogeneity (the degree to which agents encode market states into similar feature spaces) and forecast overlap (the degree to which agents produce similar return predictions). We show theoretically that these two concepts are related but not equivalent, and that representation homogeneity can compress the effective space of forecast disagreement under stress even when predictions appear diverse in normal times. Through controlled factorial experiments that vary representation homogeneity while conditioning on alternative risk-aversion and learning-rate distributions, we hypothesize that increasing representation similarity amplifies synchronization in beliefs and positions, leading to volatility clustering, liquidity stress, and elevated tail risk. Our structural mechanisms suggest that low perceived volatility regimes can endogenously accumulate hidden leverage through position stickiness, which subsequently collapses when shocks trigger synchronized deleveraging. The results provide a structural foundation for macroprudential policies aimed at monitoring and preserving diversity in how AI systems represent and process market information.

AI金融系统风险市场结构算法交易

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。