用遥感与机器学习,实时监测孟加拉国萨特克赫德土壤盐渍化动态。
A Dynamic Learning Observatory Reveals the Rapid Salinization of Satkhira, Bangladesh

- 融合遥感指数与实地采样,用XGBoost和GAM模型预测盐分分布。
- 2014-2023年数据显示,中部沿海区盐渍化持续扩大,南部更严重。
- 支持农业抗灾规划,适合关注气候变化下的土地管理人群。
土壤盐渍化是孟加拉国沿海地区的主要环境挑战,威胁农业产出与生计。本研究构建基于机器学习的框架,结合实地观测与Landsat光谱指数,预测并制图萨特克赫德地区的土壤盐分。2024–2025年采集的205个土壤样本用于训练极端梯度提升(XGBoost)模型,并通过广义加性模型(GAM)进一步优化。采用空间交叉验证减少自相关偏差,使用自助抽样量化预测不确定性。结果表明,土壤盐分存在显著空间异质性,南部和中部沿海地区浓度更高,北部内陆较低。植被指数(尤其是NDVI)及盐分相关光谱指标为关键预测因子。基于10年窗口期(2014–2023)生成的峰值暴露图显示,高盐区反复出现,中部区域中重度盐渍暴露范围持续扩张。不确定性分析表明,沿海区域变异较大,多年度数据融合可提升预测稳定性。该框架具备鲁棒性与可扩展性,适用于长期土壤盐渍化监测,支撑气候韧性农业、土地利用规划与科学决策。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Soil salinity is a major environmental challenge in coastal Bangladesh, threatening agricultural productivity and local livelihoods. This study develops a machine-learning-based framework to predict and map soil salinity in Satkhira district by integrating field observations with Landsat-derived spectral indices. A total of 205 soil samples collected during 2024-2025 were used to train an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model, and predictions were further improved using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Spatial cross-validation was applied to reduce autocorrelation bias, and bootstrap resampling was used to quantify prediction uncertainty. The results show strong spatial variability of soil salinity, with higher concentrations in the southern and central coastal regions and lower levels in the northern inland areas. Vegetation indices, particularly NDVI, along with salinity-related spectral indicators, were identified as key predictors. 10-year-window peak-exposure maps generated for 2014-2023 reveal recurrent high-salinity zones and a persistent, expanding footprint of moderate-to-high salinity exposure across the central parts of the district. Uncertainty analysis indicates higher variability in coastal zones and improved prediction stability when multi-year datasets are combined. The proposed framework provides a robust and scalable approach for long-term monitoring of soil salinity. It supports climate-resilient agriculture, land-use planning, and evidence-based decision-making in coastal Bangladesh.
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