用卫星影像训练模型,实现低成本高精度的全球财富动态监测。
A satellite foundation model for improved wealth monitoring

- 基于三百万对时序卫星图像自监督预训练,适配稀疏调查数据。
- 仅需10%样本即达竞争力水平,支持十年跨度的财富预测与变化追踪。
- 适用于非洲等多国,生成高分辨率大陆级财富地图,适合政策制定者使用。
贫困统计指导社会政策,但在许多中低收入国家,普查和家庭调查成本高、频率低、易过时且存在误差。卫星影像提供全球覆盖,有望大规模预测经济生计,但现有方法常无法可靠识别局部差异,且在时间迁移下性能下降。我们提出Tempov,一个在三百万组双时相Landsat图像上通过自监督预训练的卫星基础模型,采用参数高效微调适应稀疏调查标签。该模型支持大范围、高分辨率的财富测绘与动态测量,包括零样本现在预测(最多十年后)、回溯预测及十年变化追踪,优于现有神经网络与地理空间基础模型。在标签稀缺场景下,仅需10%调查样本即可达到竞争性准确率,显著降低对昂贵标签采集的依赖。模型在非洲及非非洲人口大国间具有良好泛化能力,可构建统一非洲模型,实现大陆级性能(R²=0.63,r²=0.68),并生成全非洲十年财富与变化高分辨率地图。分析显示各国及国内近期经济表现差异显著。开源方案为从常规卫星数据中实现及时、可扩展、低成本的财富与贫困监测提供路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Poverty statistics guide social policy, but in many low- and middle-income countries, censuses and household surveys that collect these data are costly, infrequent, quickly outdated, and sometimes error-prone. Satellite imagery offers global coverage and the possibility of predicting economic livelihoods at scale, yet existing approaches to predicting livelihoods with imagery or other non-traditional data often fail to reliably identify local-level variation and, as we show, degrade under temporal shift. Here we introduce Tempov, a satellite foundation model pretrained by self-supervision on three million bi-temporal Landsat pairs and adapted with parameter-efficient fine-tuning to sparse survey labels. The model enables large-scale, high-resolution wealth mapping and dynamic measurement, including zero-shot nowcasting up to a decade after observed labels, retrospective hindcasting, and decadal change tracking, while outperforming existing neural network and geospatial foundation-model baselines. In low-label regimes, Tempov achieves competitive accuracy with only 10% of survey samples, indicating substantially reduced dependence on expensive label collection. The model further generalizes across populous countries within and outside Africa, and scales to a unified Africa-wide model with strong continent-level performance ($R^2=0.63$, $r^2=0.68$), from which we generate high-resolution decadal maps of wealth and wealth changes for the African continent. Analysis of these maps shows large variation in recent economic performance both within and across countries. Our open-source approach provides a pathway to timely, scalable, low-cost monitoring of wealth and poverty from routinely collected satellite data.
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