针对雷达强对流预报易平滑的问题,提出气象感知的多尺度注意力模型。
IMPA-Net: Meteorology-Aware Multi-Scale Attention and Dynamic Loss for Extreme Convective Radar Nowcasting
- 通过结构化通道重组与多尺度注意力捕捉不同尺度对流动态
- 在≥45 dBZ强度下评分提升至0.143,显著优于基线模型
- 适合需要精准识别强对流灾害的气象预警场景
短时强降水雷达预报对极端天气预警至关重要。但基于像素误差训练的深度学习模型常生成过于平滑的预测,抑制了关键的强回波信号。该问题因多尺度特征交互不足及异质地理输入融合不佳而加剧。本文提出IMPA-Net(集成多尺度预测注意力网络),一种0-2小时确定性临近预报框架,通过输入、架构和损失函数层面的气象感知设计解决上述问题。无参数的空间混合器在中尺度-γ邻域(约2公里)内通过确定性通道置换重构异质输入通道,提供结构化跨场先验;集成多尺度预测注意力模块作为时空转换器,捕捉从次中尺度-β到中尺度-γ的动态;气象感知动态损失采用三级非对称加权,在训练周期、风暴强度和预报时效上自适应调整,缓解回归均值问题。在华东地区多源雷达数据集上评估,相较于七个基线模型,IMPA-Net将≥45 dBZ的海德克技能得分从SimVP的0.049提升至0.143。相比pySTEPS,在强事件检测与误报控制间取得更优平衡。谱分析显示,其在中尺度频带能量保持良好,而对比方法呈现渐进平滑。这些改进在单一地形与对流气候条件下验证,跨地形与气候区域的泛化能力尚待测试。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Short-range prediction of convective precipitation from weather radar observations is essential for severe weather warnings. However, deep learning models trained with pixel-wise error metrics tend to produce overly smooth forecasts that suppress intense echoes critical for hazard detection. This issue is exacerbated by insufficient multi-scale feature interaction and suboptimal fusion of heterogeneous geophysical inputs. We propose IMPA-Net (Integrated Multi-scale Predictive Attention Network), a deterministic 0-2 hour nowcasting framework that addresses these limitations through meteorologically-informed designs at the input, architecture, and loss function levels. A parameter-free Spatial Mixer reorganizes heterogeneous input channels at the mesoscale-$γ$ neighborhood (~2 km) via deterministic channel permutation, providing a structured cross-field prior. An integrated multi-scale predictive attention module serves as the spatiotemporal translator, capturing dynamics from mesoscale-$β$ to mesoscale-$γ$ scales. A Meteorologically-Aware Dynamic Loss employs three-level asymmetric weighting -- adapting across training epochs, storm intensity, and forecast lead time -- to counteract regression-to-the-mean. Evaluated against seven baselines on a multi-source radar dataset over eastern China, IMPA-Net raises the Heidke Skill Score at $\geq$45 dBZ from 0.049 (SimVP baseline) to 0.143 under matched settings. Relative to pySTEPS, it provides a better trade-off between severe-event detection and false-alarm control. Spectral analysis confirms preserved energy across mesoscale bands where competing methods show progressive smoothing. These improvements are shown within a single domain and convective regime; generalizability to other orographic and climatic regions remains to be tested.
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