根据场景特性动态选专家模型,提升轨迹预测准确率
SceneSelect: Selective Learning for Trajectory Scene Classification and Expert Scheduling

- 按场景特征自动匹配最合适的预测模型
- 在3个数据集上平均精度提升10.5%
- 无需重训即可适配新数据,适合多场景应用
准确的轨迹预测面临严重场景异质性挑战——不同现实环境中的运动速度、空间密度和交互模式差异极大。现有方法多采用单一统一模型,期望固定架构泛化到所有场景,但这种模型中心范式在极端异质性下必然导致泛化差距大、精度下降和计算浪费。为此,我们提出选择性学习这一新型场景中心范式,通过分析场景特征,动态将输入路由至最优专家模型。具体实现为SceneSelect:利用可解释的几何与运动特征进行无监督聚类,发现潜在场景分类体系;训练解耦的分类模块实时分配输入至场景类别,并通过可扩展的调度策略将轨迹序列分配给最优专家预测器。该解耦设计具备优异泛化能力,可无缝集成各类现成模型,在不需昂贵联合重训的前提下,稳健适应新数据集。在ETH-UCY、SDD和NBA三个公开基准上的大量实验表明,该方法持续优于强单模型与集成基线,平均提升10.5%,验证了场景感知选择性学习的有效性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate trajectory prediction is fundamentally challenging due to high scene heterogeneity - the severe variance in motion velocity, spatial density, and interaction patterns across different real-world environments. However, most existing approaches typically train a single unified model, expecting a fixed-capacity architecture to generalize universally across all possible scenarios. This conventional model-centric paradigm is fundamentally flawed when confronting such extreme heterogeneity, inevitably leading to a severe generalization gap, degraded accuracy, and massive computational waste. To overcome this bottleneck, rather than refining restricted model-centric architectures, we propose selective learning, a novel scene-centric paradigm. It explicitly analyzes the characteristics of the underlying scene to dynamically route inputs to the most appropriate expert models. As a concrete implementation of this paradigm, we introduce SceneSelect. Specifically, SceneSelect utilizes unsupervised clustering on interpretable geometric and kinematic features to discover a latent scene taxonomy. A highly decoupled classification module is then trained to assign real-time inputs to these scene categories, and a highly extensible, plug-and-play scheduling policy automatically dispatches the trajectory sequence to the optimal expert predictor. Crucially, this decoupled design ensures excellent generalization capabilities, allowing seamless integration with different off-the-shelf models and robust adaptation across new datasets without requiring computationally expensive joint retraining. Extensive experiments on three public benchmarks (ETH-UCY, SDD, and NBA) demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms strong single-model and ensemble baselines, achieving an average improvement of 10.5%, showcasing the effectiveness of scene-aware selective learning.
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