动态能源预测基准平台,解决模型评估不可比问题。
Energy-Arena: A Dynamic Benchmark for Operational Energy Forecasting
- 构建持续更新的开放平台,按实际运行需求评测模型
- 采用滚动窗口评估,避免历史数据泄露和事后调参
- 适合能源系统研究者与智能调度算法开发者使用
能源预测研究长期存在可比性差距,因模型在特定数据集、时间段、信息集和评分方式下评估,而常用基准与竞赛数据集多为固定历史窗口。本文提出Energy-Arena,一个面向运营级能源时间序列预测的动态基准平台,随能源系统演进持续更新参考点。平台为开源、基于API的提交系统,标准化挑战定义与提交截止时间,契合实际运行约束。性能通过持久化排行榜在滚动评估窗口中报告。相比回溯测试,Energy-Arena采用前瞻性基准测试,强制事前提交与事后评估,提升透明度,防止信息泄露与事后调参。平台已公开可用:Energy-Arena.org。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Energy forecasting research faces a persistent comparability gap that makes it difficult to measure consistent progress over time. Reported accuracy gains are often not directly comparable because models are evaluated under study-specific datasets, time periods, information sets, and scoring setups, while widely used benchmarks and competition datasets are typically tied to fixed historical windows. This paper introduces the Energy-Arena, a dynamic benchmarking platform for operational energy time series forecasting that provides a continuously updated reference point as energy systems evolve. The platform operates as an open, API-based submission system and standardizes challenge definitions and submission deadlines aligned with operational constraints. Performance is reported on rolling evaluation windows via persistent leaderboards. By moving from retrospective backtesting to forward-looking benchmarking, the Energy-Arena enforces standardized ex-ante submission and ex-post evaluation, thereby improving transparency by preventing information leakage and retroactive tuning. The platform is publicly available at Energy-Arena.org.
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