arXiv:2604.24766cs.LGcs.AI2026-04被引 1

聚焦关键电器分组,提升短时用电量预测精度。

GCA-BULF: A Bottom-Up Framework for Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Grouped Critical Appliances

  • 按功率、开关频率等筛选关键电器,再按时空相关性分组。
  • 相比传统方法,小时级负荷预测误差降低20.85%至57.88%。
  • 适合需精准节能调度的住宅与办公场景使用。

随着分时与阶梯电价的推广,用户被鼓励通过自动控制高功耗电器实现峰谷转移,以降低用电成本并增强电网稳定性。可靠短时负荷预测(STLF)是支撑这一能源管理策略的关键,其目标是基于历史数据、时间模式和上下文信息,预测未来数分钟至数天的用电量。传统自上而下方法难以捕捉多样混杂电器的复杂用电模式;虽自下而上方法通过设备级数据提升了精度,但全量监控成本过高,且多数电器对总负荷影响有限。为此,本文提出基于分组关键电器的自下而上短时负荷预测框架GCA-BULF,包含三项核心设计:首先,通过迭代负荷分解,依据功率、开关频率及使用周期性对电器排序并识别关键电器;其次,基于空间与时间相关性将关键电器聚类,实现组级预测;最后,协同多个组级预测结果优化总负荷估计。在住宅与办公建筑负荷预测任务上的实验表明,相较现有自上而下方法,GCA-BULF在小时级预测上提升20.85%–57.88%;相较自下而上方法,提升33.03%–92.48%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

With the rise of time-of-use and tiered electricity pricing, energy consumers are encouraged to adopt peak-shifting strategies by automatically controlling high-power appliances. These help lower energy costs while enhancing the power grid's stability. To support such energy management with high resilience and responsiveness, reliable short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a critical role. STLF predicts electricity consumption over time horizons ranging from minutes to days, using historical data, temporal patterns, and contextual factors. Traditional top-down forecasting methods struggle to capture the complex consumption patterns of diverse and mixed appliance loads. Although bottom-up methods improve forecasting accuracy by integrating appliance-level data, monitoring all appliances is costly, and many do not meaningfully impact total load prediction. Therefore, we propose GCA-BULF, a bottom-up short-term load forecasting framework based on grouped critical appliances, supported by three key designs. First, the Critical Appliance Filtering module ranks appliances according to their power consumption, switching frequency, and usage pattern periodicity, and identifies critical ones through iterative load decomposition. Next, the Related Appliance Grouping module clusters these appliances based on spatial and temporal correlations for group-level forecasting. Finally, the Collaborative Load Forecasting module refines the total load prediction by combining multiple group-level forecasts. We evaluate GCA-BULF on residential and office building load forecasting tasks. Experimental results reveal that GCA-BULF improves hourly total load forecasting by 20.85%-57.88% compared to existing top-down methods and by 33.03%-92.48% compared to bottom-up methods.

负荷预测电器分组节能调度智能电网

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