用统计模型验证维诺奇手稿中A/B语言区分真实存在，且源自每页一个布尔开关。
A Quantitative Confirmation of the Currier Language Distinction
- 通过贝塔-二项混合模型在185页中自动识别出真假语言区分
- 92%的词形变化由每页一次的布尔开关决定，准确率89%
- 适合对古文字学、密码分析和生成建模感兴趣的读者
我们对维诺奇手稿中的库里耶尔A/B语言区分进行了统一的定量分析，分两步进行。首先，将贝塔-二项混合模型应用于185页的字符对替换比率，不依赖库里耶尔的标签，基于BIC准则选出2个组别，并对保留页的标签预测准确率达89%。其次，证明该区分并非原始特征，而是更高维生成系统的低分辨率投影。其核心是一个每页设置一次的离散布尔开关，控制着ch和sh之后的元音选择。二状态二项混合模型相比单状态模型的ΔAIC为2,549，可无歧义地分配197页中的195页。该开关非均匀作用：词形模板分为固定与可变两类，模板身份解释了92%的方差。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We present a unified quantitative analysis of the Currier A/B language distinction in the Voynich Manuscript, proceeding in two stages. First, we confirm that the distinction is genuine: a Beta-Binomial mixture model applied to character-pair substitution ratios across 185 folios, without access to Currier's labels, selects 2 by BIC and predicts held-out folio labels at 89% accuracy. Second, we show that the A/B contrast is not primitive but is a low-resolution projection of a higher-dimensional generative system. Its dominant component is a discrete boolean "switch" set once per folio, governing the vowel following the digraphs ch and sh. A two-state binomial mixture achieves Delta\ AIC = 2,549 over a single-state model and assigns 195 of 197 folios unambiguously. This switch does not operate uniformly: word templates divide into fixed contexts and switchable contexts, with template identity accounting for 92% of variance.
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