用局部传输条件实现一步生成运动预测,兼顾精度与实时性。
FlowS: One-Step Motion Prediction via Local Transport Conditioning

- 通过学习先验锚点将运动模式发现转为短距修正,支持单步推断
- 在Waymo数据集上达0.4804的Soft mAP,75FPS下保持高精度
- 适合自动驾驶等对延迟敏感的实时场景
生成式运动预测需同时满足高精度、多模态未来和严格延迟限制。扩散模型虽能实现前两点,但需数十至数百次去噪步骤,不满足第三点。我们发现:当底层传输问题具有局部性时,单步积分即可保持准确。若模型需一步完成模式识别和长距离位移,会累积大离散误差;而将基分布条件化为靠近合理未来的状态,可将问题简化为短程修正,此时单步欧拉积分已足够。我们在FlowS中实现这一局部传输条件化,采用两种机制:一是在线场景条件化的学习先验,每智能体生成K条校准锚点轨迹,预先接近可能未来,使模式发现变为局部修正;二是步一致位移场,确保单步推断继承多步精度。关键在于,沿直线路径以学习先验为锚点,得到稳定且低方差的训练目标,优于以往在弯曲扩散路径上高方差自举信号的方法。在Waymo Open Motion Dataset上,FlowS以单步推理实现0.4804的Soft mAP和0.4703的mAP(集成结果),达到75FPS,证明局部传输条件化使一步生成运动预测在安全关键自主系统中成为可能。代码与预训练模型将在录用后发布。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Generative motion prediction must satisfy three simultaneous requirements for real-world autonomy: high accuracy, diverse multimodal futures, and strictly bounded latency. Diffusion models meet the first two but violate the third, requiring tens to hundreds of denoising steps. We identify a conditioning strategy that resolves this tension: \textit{single-step integration is accurate when the underlying transport problem is local}. A model that must both discover the correct behavioral mode and traverse a long displacement in one step accumulates large discretization errors; conditioning the base distribution to lie near plausible futures reduces the problem to short-range refinement, the regime where a single Euler step suffices. We instantiate this \emph{local transport conditioning} in FlowS, a conditional flow matching framework with two mechanisms. First, an online, scene-conditioned learned prior emits $K$ calibrated anchor trajectories per agent, each already near a plausible future, converting mode discovery into local correction. Second, a step-consistent displacement field enforces semigroup self-consistency, guaranteeing that a single step inherits multi-step accuracy. Crucially, anchoring this field at learned priors along straight-line paths yields a {stable, low-variance} training target, unlike prior self-consistency methods that suffer from {high-variance bootstrap} signals on curved diffusion paths. On the Waymo Open Motion Dataset, FlowS achieves state-of-the-art Soft mAP {(0.4804) and mAP (0.4703) with ensemble at 75\,FPS} with single-step inference, demonstrating that local transport conditioning makes one-step generative motion prediction practical for safety-critical autonomy. Code and pretrained models will be released upon acceptance.
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