用物理约束的专家混合模型,实现垃圾焚烧厂间污染物协同控制的跨厂迁移。
Advancing multi-site emission control: A physics-informed transfer learning framework with mixture of experts for carbon-pollutant synergy

- 基于物理守恒与运行工况异质性,构建碳-污染物专家混合模型。
- 13个厂区验证:跨厂迁移后仍保持高预测精度(R2达0.61-0.84)。
- 适合需协同减排碳与污染物的多厂区能源网络决策支持。
城市固体废物焚烧(MSWI)在产电的同时排放二氧化碳、一氧化碳及多种受控空气污染物,其形成机制在单一燃烧系统中紧密耦合。在多样设施构成的网络中控制这些排放,比优化单个工厂更具挑战性:在某地训练的数据驱动模型捕捉的是局部统计模式,难以迁移到其他厂区,因其缺乏物理约束和工况层面的结构化信息。本文表明,当联合考虑物理守恒定律、运行工况异质性及碳-污染物耦合关系时,可在异构的MSWI工厂间识别共享的排放控制规律。我们提出碳-污染物专家混合(CPMoE)模型,通过基于守恒律正则化的分域专家网络路由工艺观测数据,并结合物理信息迁移学习,将参考模型适配至新厂区。在13个工厂上,CPMoE对六种主要污染物及综合系统风险指数的源域预测性能分别为R2 0.668–0.904和0.666–0.970;迁移至12个目标厂区后,性能仍保持在R2 0.661–0.842和0.610–0.841。专家使用模式显示,适应过程通过结构化工况重加权实现,而非从零学习。将迁移后的模型嵌入离线数字孪生系统,基于历史记录筛选操作调整方案,使风险指数平均降低3.6%–6.3%,且94%–100%样本中实现多种污染物同步削减。结果表明,该方法为异构垃圾-能源网络中的可迁移、系统级碳-污染物协同控制提供了实用路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) converts urban waste to energy but simultaneously emits carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and multiple regulated air pollutants whose formation is tightly coupled within a single combustion system. Controlling these emissions across a network of diverse facilities poses a fundamentally different challenge from optimising a single plant: data-driven models trained at one site capture local statistical patterns that rarely survive transfer to another, because they lack the physical constraints and regime-level structure needed to generalise. Here we show that shared emission-control relationships can be identified across heterogeneous MSWI plants when physical conservation laws, operating-regime heterogeneity and carbon-pollutant coupling are treated jointly. We develop a carbon-pollutant mixture-of-experts (CPMoE) model that routes process observations through regime-specific expert networks under conservation-based regularisation, and combine it with physics-informed transfer learning to adapt a reference model to new facilities. Across 13 plants, CPMoE predicts six major pollutants and a composite system-level risk index with source-domain R2 of 0.668-0.904 and 0.666-0.970, respectively; after transfer to 12 target plants these values remain 0.661-0.842 and 0.610-0.841. Expert-utilisation patterns show that adaptation proceeds through structured regime re-weighting rather than re-learning from scratch. Embedding the transferred model in an offline digital twin and screening candidate operating adjustments against historical process records yields consistent risk-index reductions of 3.6-6.3% with simultaneous pollutant co-reductions in 94-100% of evaluated samples. These findings suggest a practical route toward transferable, system-level decision support for carbon-pollutant co-control in heterogeneous waste-to-energy networks.
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