arXiv:2604.27149cs.LGcs.AI2026-04中稿 · author version of …

通过局部校准分析,揭示回归任务中不确定性来源。

ConformaDecompose: Explaining Uncertainty via Calibration Localization

论文配图:ConformaDecompose: Explaining Uncertainty via Calibration Localization
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于逐步局部校准,诊断模型预测的可缩减不确定性。
  • 实验证明可缩减不确定性与认知不确定性代理指标一致。
  • 适合关注模型可信度解释的研究者与实践者。

置信预测提供无分布假设的预测区间并保证覆盖率,但其依赖单一全局校准阈值,掩盖了实例层面的不确定性来源。它混淆了不可约噪声与由异质训练数据(随机性)、模型局限或校准不匹配(认知性)引起的不确定性,难以解释区间为何宽或是否可缩小。我们提出一种面向不确定性的可解释框架,通过渐进式校准局部化,分析回归任务中由校准引发的认知不确定性可缩减性。该方法为诊断而非因果:不估计真实的随机或认知不确定性,而是解释当校准支持逐渐聚焦于测试实例时,置信区间如何收缩与稳定。在多个基准和真实数据集上,绝对可缩减不确定性与认知性代理指标相符,相对贡献随任务变化,揭示了区间宽度所隐藏的场景差异。此实例级视角补充了置信不确定性,提升可解释性,且无需改变预测器或覆盖率。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates irreducible noise with uncertainty induced by heterogeneous training data (aleatoric), model limitations, or calibration mismatch (epistemic), offering little insight into why an interval is wide or whether it could be reduced. We introduce an uncertainty-aware explainability framework that analyses the reducibility of calibration-induced epistemic conformal uncertainty via progressive calibration localisation for regression tasks. The approach is diagnostic rather than causal: it does not estimate true aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty, but explains how conformal intervals contract and stabilise as calibration support is localised around a test instance. Across benchmarks and real-world data, absolute reducible uncertainty aligns with epistemic proxies, while its relative contribution varies by task, revealing regimes hidden by interval width. This instance-level view complements conformal uncertainty, enhancing interpretability without altering the predictor or coverage.

置信预测不确定性解释可解释性回归任务

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