让空间变形随协变量变化,提升非平稳高斯过程预测能力
Predicting Covariate-Driven Spatial Deformation for Nonstationary Gaussian Processes

- 将空间变形建模为协变量的函数,用李代数速度场构建变形机制
- 在合理物理假设下截断高阶交互项,避免估计不稳定
- 适用于制造与地质统计领域,支持少量样本下的新条件预测
非平稳高斯过程(GPs)对复杂、局部异质的空间数据建模至关重要。常用的空间变形方法通过扭曲域来恢复各向同性,但该静态方法无法捕捉协变量引起的时空相关性变化,限制了其在新协变量条件下对非平稳GP的预测能力。为此,我们提出将空间变形建模为协变量的函数,通过李代数中的速度场表征变形,连接微分同胚变形空间与欧氏协变量空间。为克服多协变量间高阶相互作用导致的估计不稳定性,我们证明在适度物理假设下可截断这些交互项。基于此理论,建立了多协变量驱动的简洁变形函数形式,并开发了高效估计-推断算法,可在有限的协变量-变形样本对下实现外样本非平稳GP预测。该方法在模拟研究及制造与地质统计两个案例研究中验证了有效性与泛化能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Nonstationary Gaussian processes (GPs) are essential for modeling complex, locally heterogeneous spatial data. A common modeling approach is the spatial deformation method that warps the domain to recover isotropy. However, this static method does not account for changes in spatial correlation induced by covariates, limiting its ability to predict nonstationary GPs under new covariate conditions. To enable predictive modeling of the deformation method, we propose to model the spatial deformation as a function of covariates. The spaces of diffeomorphic deformations and Euclidean covariate vectors are connected by characterizing deformations as generated by velocity fields living in a Lie algebra. To overcome the estimation instability caused by high-order interactions between multiple covariates in a general Lie algebra, we prove that those interactions can be truncated with a moderate physical assumption. Based on the theoretical results, a concise functional form of deformations driven by multiple covariates can be established, and an efficient estimation-inference algorithm is developed for out-of-sample nonstationary GP prediction with limited covariate-deformation sample pairs. The effectiveness and generalizability of the method are demonstrated on a simulation study and two case studies, in the fields of manufacturing and geostatistics, respectively.
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