arXiv:2605.00350cs.CV2026-05

首个癌症生存预测的分布外检测基准,评估影像设备差异对模型影响

CURE-OOD: Benchmarking Out-of-Distribution Detection for Survival Prediction

论文配图:CURE-OOD: Benchmarking Out-of-Distribution Detection for Survival Prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建基于扫描仪参数的训练/分布内/分布外划分,模拟真实采集差异
  • 发现影像设备差异使生存预测性能下降30%以上,主流检测器失效
  • 适合研究医疗生存预测可靠性、鲁棒性评估的研究者使用

癌症患者常问:‘我还能活多久且不复发?’准确的生存预测有助于缓解心理压力、实现风险分层和个性化治疗。近年来,基于计算机断层扫描(CT)图像的生存预测模型表现优异。然而,成像设备差异引入的分布外(OOD)样本,因协变量偏移导致模型可靠性下降。目前尚无系统性基准研究该问题。为此,我们提出癌症生存预测分布外检测基准(CURE-OOD),首个在受控采集差异下系统评估生存预测中OOD检测的基准。CURE-OOD在四个生存预测任务中定义了基于扫描仪参数的训练集、分布内(ID)与分布外(OOD)测试集。实验表明,协变量偏移显著降低生存预测性能,主流分类导向的OOD检测器在生存预测中表现不佳。我们还引入HazardDev作为简单的生存感知基线。CURE-OOD支持系统分析分布偏移对下游生存性能与检测能力的影响。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

``How long can I live and remain free of cancer?'' is often the first question a patient asks after receiving a cancer diagnosis and treatment. Accurate survival prediction helps alleviate psychological distress and supports risk stratification and personalized treatment planning. Recent survival prediction frameworks have shown strong performance using computed tomography (CT) images. However, variations in imaging acquisition introduce out-of-distribution (OOD) samples caused by covariate shifts that undermine model reliability. Despite this challenge, to our knowledge, no existing benchmark systematically studies OOD detection in cancer survival prediction. To address this gap, we introduce the Cancer sURvival bEnchmark for OOD Detection (CURE-OOD), the first benchmark for systematically evaluating OOD detection in survival prediction under controlled acquisition-induced distribution shifts. CURE-OOD defines scanner-parameter-based training, in-distribution (ID), and OOD test splits across four survival prediction tasks. Our experiments show that covariate shifts notably reduce survival prediction performance. It also shows that mainstream classification-oriented OOD detectors can fail in survival prediction. Finally, we include HazardDev as a simple survival-aware reference baseline for OOD detection. CURE-OOD enables systematic analysis of how distribution shifts affect both downstream survival performance and OOD detectability.

生存预测分布外检测医疗AI鲁棒性

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