用大模型生成有安全保证的动态库存策略,提升零售预测效果。
InvEvolve: Evolving White-Box Inventory Policies via Large Language Models with Performance Guarantees

- 基于强化学习大模型,结合需求数据生成可解释库存策略
- 在真实与合成数据上均超越经典方法和深度学习模型
- 提供统计安全保障,适合对可靠性要求高的工业部署
我们研究如何利用大语言模型在非平稳需求的在线场景中生成库存策略。受近期基于LLM的进化搜索(如AlphaEvolve)启发,该方法在静态结构化问题中表现优异,但不适用于需实时更新的动态库存场景。为此,我们提出InvEvolve,一个端到端的库存策略演化与推理框架,基于置信区间认证实现性能保障。该框架基于强化学习训练的大模型,可处理需求数据及数值、文本特征,生成具有统计安全性的可解释库存策略,并支持未来部署。我们进一步构建统一框架,理论证明其在训练、推理与部署间的连贯性,推导出策略安全性与改进概率的下界,并刻画相对于理想安全基准的多周期性能差距。在合成数据与真实零售数据上的测试表明,InvEvolve优于传统库存策略与基于深度学习的方法,在典型库存场景中生成的新策略超越现有基准。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We study how large language models can be used to generate inventory policies in online settings with non-stationary demand. Our work is motivated by recent advances in LLM-based evolutionary search, such as AlphaEvolve, which demonstrates strong performance on static and highly structured problems such as mathematical discovery, but is not directly suited to dynamic inventory settings with online updates. We propose InvEvolve, an end-to-end inventory policy evolution and inference framework grounded in confidence-interval-based certification. Built on a large language model trained via reinforcement learning, InvEvolve can process demand data together with additional numerical and textual features, and generates white-box inventory policies with statistical safety guarantees for future deployment. We further introduce a unified framework with theoretical guarantees that connects training, inference, and deployment. This allows us to derive a lower bound on the probability that InvEvolve evolves a statistically safe and improved policy, and to characterize the multi-period performance gap relative to the oracle-safe benchmark. Tested on both synthetic data and real-world retail data, InvEvolve outperforms classical inventory policies and deep-learning-based methods. In canonical inventory settings, it generates new policies that outperform existing benchmarks.
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