arXiv:2605.00501cs.LG2026-05被引 1

直接优化金融预测中的排名相关性,提升模型表现。

LambdaRankIC: Directly Optimizing Rank IC for Financial Prediction

论文配图:LambdaRankIC: Directly Optimizing Rank IC for Financial Prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 提出新方法LambdaRankIC,直接优化排名IC指标。
  • 在真实市场数据上,显著优于传统回归与排序目标方法。
  • 适合追求排名质量的量化交易与金融预测研究者。

在金融预测中,模型性能通常以排名IC(即模型预测值与实际资产收益的斯皮尔曼等级相关性)衡量。尽管广泛采用,现有模型多使用回归损失或非对齐的排序目标进行训练。本文提出LambdaRankIC,一种直接优化排名IC的学习排序方法。通过推导成对排名交换所引发的lambda梯度闭式表达,克服了排序算子不可导的问题,实现了在LambdaRank框架内的高效梯度优化。我们将LambdaRankIC作为自定义目标集成至XGBoost。理论上证明该方法优化了排名IC的上界。在模拟和真实金融市场数据上的实验表明:在无噪声情形下,可准确恢复真实排序结构;在低信噪比及重尾噪声条件下,持续优于基于回归和NDCG的排序方法。在真实市场数据实证中,LambdaRankIC在排名IC、ICIR、月收益率和夏普比率等常用金融评估指标上均表现最佳,验证了直接优化排名IC在以全序排名质量为核心目标时的显著优势。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In financial predictions, the performance of machine learning models is often assessed by Rank IC, which is the Spearman rank correlation between the model predictions and the realized asset returns. Despite its wide adoption, most existing models are trained using regression losses or ranking objectives that may not align with Rank IC. We propose LambdaRankIC, a novel learning-to-rank approach that directly optimizes Rank IC. We circumvent the non-differentiability of the ranking operator by deriving the closed-form expression for the lambda gradients induced by the pairwise rank swaps, which enables efficient gradient-based optimization within the LambdaRank framework. We implement LambdaRankIC as a custom objective in XGBoost. Theoretically, we show that our approach optimizes an upper bound on Rank IC. We evaluate the proposed approach on both simulated and real-world financial data. In simulation studies, LambdaRankIC accurately recovers the true ranking structure in noiseless settings and consistently outperforms regression-based and NDCG-oriented ranking methods under low signal-to-noise ratios and heavy-tailed noise regimes. In empirical experiments using real market data, LambdaRankIC achieves the best out-of-sample performance on evaluation metrics commonly used in finance, including Rank IC, ICIR, monthly return, and Sharpe ratio. These results show that directly optimizing Rank IC can yield substantial improvements over conventional learning objectives in financial predictions when the full-order ranking quality is the primary goal.

金融预测排名优化XGBoostRank IC

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