用深度学习自动调整4G网络告警阈值,提升故障检测准确率。
Adaptive Alarm Threshold Prediction in 4G Mobile Networks: A Percentile-Guided Deep Learning Framework with Interpretable Outputs

- 基于百分位数生成标签,用PCTN模型预测多类告警阈值
- 在10648个小区上测试,性能优于iTransformer且参数少83%
- 输出可解释,支持运维人员无需重训即可调整策略
在移动通信中,告警是服务降级的早期信号。当小区(无线覆盖基本单元)关闭或异常时触发告警,直接影响用户体验。运营商通常依赖人工设定的固定阈值来决定是否派工程师处理,但这种静态方式在高峰时段易漏检严重故障,在低峰期又常引发误报。本文提出一种深度学习框架,从实时网络行为中自动预测四类告警阈值、审计窗口时长、非活动时间限制、总波动次数及每小时波动上限。由于阈值无真实标签,我们设计了百分位引导的标签生成策略。在涵盖三个厂商、九个区域的10,648个小区的真实4G数据集上,对比梯度提升树基线、CNN-BiLSTM+注意力、iTransformer与所提PCTN模型。PCTN在四个目标中的三个表现最优,超越先进iTransformer的同时仅使用其17%的参数量。其混合输出头与动态α机制使预测阈值兼具高精度与可解释性,支持运维人员直接查看并调整学习到的策略而无需重新训练。所有对比在p < 0.001水平上均显著。框架每日用新数据重训练,使阈值持续适应网络变化。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In mobile telecommunications, alarms act as early warning signals. They are triggered when a cell, the basic unit of radio coverage, shuts down or behaves abnormally. This signals a degradation in service quality, which directly affects the customer experience. To fix the issue, operators rely on preset thresholds to decide when an engineer should be sent out. In practice, these thresholds are set manually and remain fixed regardless of the time of day, traffic levels, or overall network conditions. This often leads to serious faults slipping through during busy hours, while minor issues can cause unnecessary callouts when the network is quiet. This paper presents a machine learning framework that automatically predicts four alarm thresholds, audit window duration, inactive time limit, total fluctuation count, and per hour fluctuation limit, from live network behavior. Since no ground truth labels exist for thresholds, we introduce a percentile guided label derivation strategy and evaluate four models on an anonymized dataset of 10,648 cells across three vendors and nine regions from a real 4G network, comprising a Gradient Boosted Trees baseline, a CNN-BiLSTM with attention, the proposed PCTN, and an iTransformer. PCTN performs the best overall with respect to three of the four targets, outperforming a state-of-the-art iTransformer while using 83 percent fewer parameters. Its mixed output heads and dynamic alpha mechanism produce thresholds that are both accurate and interpretable, allowing operators to inspect and adjust the learned policy without retraining. All comparisons are statistically significant at p < 0.001. The framework undergoes daily retraining using new data, which enables the thresholds to constantly adjust to changes in the network.
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