arXiv:2605.01126cs.LG2026-05被引 2

构建首个公开高影响天气评估基准,推动AI与数值预报模型可信验证。

Extreme Weather Bench: A framework and benchmark for evaluation of high-impact weather

论文配图:Extreme Weather Bench: A framework and benchmark for evaluation of high-impact weather
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 设计多尺度、跨区域的高影响天气案例集
  • 提供观测数据与基于影响的评估指标
  • 适合气象模型开发者与验证研究人员使用

全球范围内的高影响天气事件预测对人工智能(AI)和数值天气预报(NWP)模型均构成挑战,模型部署前必须经过充分验证。尽管AI天气模型快速发展,但其评估仍多依赖全局尺度或少数案例选择。为此,我们推出极端天气基准(Extreme Weather Bench, EWB),一个由社区驱动的开源评估框架,涵盖多种关乎公众安全的高影响天气现象。EWB提供标准案例集(覆盖多时空尺度与天气谱系)、观测数据、基于影响的评估指标及开源代码,支持模型在真实高影响事件上的验证。通过统一标准案例评估,可显著提升AI模型的可信度。该系统免费开放,将持续扩展更多现象、测试案例与评估指标,协同全球气象与预报验证研究者共同推进科学进展。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Forecasting the wide variety of high-impact weather events experienced globally is a challenge for both Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and it is critical that such models be properly verified before deployment. Although AI weather models are rapidly evolving, much of their evaluation is currently done either with a global-scale evaluation or by hand-picking a small number of case studies or a region. A widely-used open-source benchmark suite focusing on high-impact weather will help to drive the science forward for all scales of weather models, as it has for other AI fields. Here we introduce Extreme Weather Bench (EWB), a new community-driven benchmark suite that facilitates model validation and verification on a variety of high-impact hazards that matter to people around the globe. EWB provides a standard set of case studies (spanning across multiple spatial and temporal scales and different parts of the weather spectrum), observational data, impact-based metrics, and open-source code for users to evaluate their models. Verifying that a model works against a standard set of case studies, especially events that are high-impact for the general public, is a key piece of improving the trustworthiness of AI models. EWB will help to drive the science forward for all weather models, enabling true comparisons across models and evaluating models on specific high-impact phenomena through the use of case studies. EWB is a free open-source community-driven system and will continue to evolve to include additional phenomena, test cases and metrics in collaboration with the worldwide weather and forecast verification community.

天气预测评估基准AI气象

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