arXiv:2605.01134cs.AI2026-05

用AI动态模拟未来多种可能,实现时间可计算的因果推理。

To Use AI as Dice of Possibilities with Timing Computation

论文配图:To Use AI as Dice of Possibilities with Timing Computation
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将时间视为可计算变量,构建多路径可能时间线框架
  • 基于3276例乳腺癌数据,首次实现纯数据驱动的轨迹发现与反事实推演
  • 适合研究医疗预测、复杂系统演化与自主决策的学者

主流基于名词的建模范式以概率论为基础,将预设名词实体作为基本单元,但其无法处理时间维度,难以表征未来作为开放可能性空间。本文填补三个概念空白:(1)可能空间——容纳同一事件的多重可能时间线;(2)时间计算——将时间视为可计算而非仅观测的维度;(3)因果事实(causal factum)——通过逆向推理可能未来恢复最大因果效力,而非预先假设。三者结合消解了名词基因果推断中的混淆问题,为自发增长的因果推理世界模型奠定基础。作为概念验证,我们在此框架下应用纵向乳腺癌患者电子病历数据(n=3,276),首次实现纯数据驱动的自动轨迹发现与反事实时间推演(即What-If机器)。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The dominant noun-based modeling paradigm, grounded in probability theory and committed to pre-specified noun entities as primitive modeling units, is insufficient as a \emph{grammar of thought}: It leaves \emph{timing} outside the computational scope, precluding any adequate representation of the future as an open space of possibilities. This paper addresses three conceptual gaps absent from the existing literature: (1) possibility space -- a framework admitting multiple possible timelines for the same event; (2) timing computation -- the treatment of timing as a computable rather than observed dimension; and (3) causal factum -- the maximal causal efficacy recovered by reasoning backward from possible futures, rather than assumed in advance. Together, these definitions dissolve the confounding problem inherent to noun-based causal inference and provide the foundation for a spontaneously growing causal-reasoning world model. As proof of concept, we instantiate the framework and apply it to longitudinal EHR data from 3,276 breast cancer patients, demonstrating for the first time, to our knowledge, automatic trajectory discovery and counterfactual timing deduction (i.e., a What-If Machine) in a purely data-driven manner.

因果推理时间建模医疗AI反事实

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