提出在线版广义预测编码,可实时追踪动态系统状态与参数。
Online Generalised Predictive Coding

- 分离时间尺度,慢更新参数与精度,快进行贝叶斯状态推断
- 在非线性混沌模型中仍能准确追踪隐状态,即使模型形式不匹配
- 适合需要实时学习与不确定度估计的生物启发式系统
本文提出一种面向在线应用的广义滤波扩展方法——在线动态期望最大化(ODEM)。该方法基于动态期望最大化(DEM)框架,通过分离时间尺度实现参数与精度的缓慢更新,同时快速进行贝叶斯信念更新以推断动态隐藏状态。该框架统一了工程中的变分卡尔曼-布奇滤波、神经科学中的广义预测编码与时间序列分析中的动态期望最大化等范式。通过数值实验,在非线性甚至混沌的生成模型下验证了ODEM的有效性,结果表明其可在生成模型功能形式与假设模型不一致时,依然准确追踪隐状态。从类脑预测编码视角看,ODEM为动态环境中在线推理、学习与不确定性估计提供了生物合理解决方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper introduces an extension of generalised filtering for online applications. Generalised filtering refers to data assimilation schemes that jointly infer latent states, learn unknown model parameters, and estimate uncertainty in an integrated framework -- e.g., estimate state and observation noise -- at the same time (i.e., triple estimation). This framework appears across disciplines under different names, including variational Kalman-Bucy filtering in engineering, generalised predictive coding in neuroscience, and Dynamic Expectation Maximisation (DEM) in time-series analysis. Here, we specialise DEM for ``online'' data assimilation, through a separation of temporal scales. We describe the variational principles and procedures that allow one to assimilate data in a way that allows for a slow updating of parameters and precisions, which contextualise fast Bayesian belief updating about the dynamic hidden states. Using numerical studies, we demonstrate the validity of online DEM (ODEM) using a non-linear -- and potentially chaotic -- generative model, to show that the ODEM scheme can track the latent states of the generative process, even when its functional form differs fundamentally from the dynamics of the generative model. Framed from a neuro-mimetic predictive coding perspective, ODEM offers a biologically inspired solution to online inference, learning, and uncertainty estimation in dynamic environments.
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