arXiv:2605.02681cs.CEcs.AI2026-05

提出可组合的因果决策模型,用于模拟资源受限的智能体在数字系统中的行为。

The Design and Composition of Structural Causal Decision Processes

  • 基于因果结构构建可组合的决策模型,支持变量间因果关系显式建模
  • 能内生建模记忆形成与可变折扣,比传统模型更灵活
  • 适合数字经济发展、信息机制设计等场景的仿真与建模

我们提出了两类新的决策智能体因果模型,旨在满足计算系统经济建模的需求。这些系统由子系统构成,可能表现出认知资源的内生限制和价值贴现。结构化因果决策模型(SCDMs)扩展了结构化因果影响模型(SCIMs),明确表示模型变量间的因果关系及智能体决策的收益。此外,智能体决策可受其因果前因约束,且SCDMs允许存在未指定概率分布或结构方程的开放根变量。我们证明了SCDMs具有良好定义且计算上有用的可组合性。在此基础上,我们定义了结构化因果决策过程(SCDP),即带有贴现变量的重复性SCDM。SCDP继承了SCDM的组合优势,且表达能力严格强于部分可观测马尔可夫决策过程(POMDPs),因其不假设理性信念形成。实际上,SCDP可内生建模记忆形成过程,适用于动态环境中资源理性的智能体建模。同时,它还能建模可变贴现,广泛用于社会科学建模。我们主张SCDP是数字经济发展政策模拟、信息系统机制设计及网络基础设施数字孪生建模的有力工具。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We present two new classes of causal models of decision-making agents. Our approach is motivated by the needs of modeling the economics of computing systems. These systems are composed of subsystems and can exhibit endogenous limits on cognitive resources and value discounting. Structural Causal Decision Models (SCDMs) expand on Structural Causal Influence Models. Like SCIMs, they explicitly represent the causal relationships between model variables and the payoffs of agent decisions. Additionally, agent decisions can be constrained by their causal antecedents, and SCDMs can have open root variables for which no probability distribution or structural equation is given. We show that SCDMs have a well-defined and computationally useful property of composability. Building on SCDMs, we then define a Structural Causal Decision Process (SCDP) as a recurring SCDM with a discount variable. SCDPs benefit from the useful composition properties of SCDMs. Moreover, SCDPs are strictly more expressive than POMDPs because they do not assume rational belief formation. Indeed, an SCDP can endogenously model the memory-formation process, and is thus useful for modeling resource rational agents in dynamic settings. SCDPs are also capable of modeling variable discounting, a tool used widely in social scientific modeling. We pose that SCDPs are a useful framework for policy simulation for the digital economy, mechanism design for information systems, and digital twin modeling of cyberinfrastructure.

因果建模决策过程数字孪生资源理性

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