arXiv:2605.03268cs.LGcs.AI2026-05

提出可处理隐含上下文影响结构与机制的因果模型,支持多层级干预。

Partially Observed Structural Causal Models

论文配图:Partially Observed Structural Causal Models
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将因果机制与图结构解耦,支持节点与边级别的干预
  • 在视网膜与基因调控模拟中验证了干预可识别性
  • 适合研究结构与机制共生成且观测不全的系统

本文引入部分可观测结构因果模型(POSCMs),扩展传统结构因果模型(SCMs)以应对上游上下文共同决定观测变量间的交互结构与下游机制的情形。POSCMs为内生图提供了自洽的因果建模框架,支持从节点级到边级的多层次干预。为定义边干预,将节点机制拆分为局部传输通道,可在不改变源节点或目标机制其余部分的前提下进行修改。我们建立了可识别性理论,明确了哪些干预族足以区分结构形成与机制。通过两个外部模拟器——一个生物物理精细的虚拟人类视网膜和一个基因调控类比系统——对理论结果进行实证验证。实验重现了隐含上下文下的不可识别性,暴露了隐含边导致的结构-机制混淆,并在靶向干预下恢复了通路级输入输出关系,与正向马尔可夫核可识别性结果一致。总体而言,POSCMs为上下文、图结构、机制与观测联合生成且仅部分可观测的因果系统提供了一个以干预为中心的建模框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Here we introduce Partially Observed Structural Causal Models (POSCMs) as an extension of structural causal models (SCMs) to settings where upstream contexts co-determine both the interaction structure and downstream mechanisms on observed variables. POSCMs thus provide a self-contained causal modeling framework for endogenous graphs, allowing for an intervention hierarchy spanning node- and edge-level contexts and endogenous variable interventions. To define edge interventions, we separate node mechanisms into edge-local transmission channels that can be modified without changing the source node or the rest of the target mechanism. We provide an identifiability theory that clarifies which intervention families would suffice to disentangle structure formation from mechanisms. We then empirically validate these theoretical results in two external simulators: a biophysically detailed virtual human retina and a gene-regulatory analogue. The experiments reproduce non-identifiability under latent context, expose structure-mechanism confounding under latent edges, and recover pathway-level input-output relationships under targeted interventions, consistent with our positive Markov kernel identifiability results. Together, POSCMs provide an intervention-oriented framework for causal systems in which contexts, graph structure, mechanisms, and measurements are jointly generated and only partially observed.

因果建模结构因果干预推理

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