用图卷积+支持向量回归,提升城市空气污染预测的鲁棒性。
GraphSVR: A Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression Framework for Robust Spatiotemporal Air Pollution Forecasting

- 融合图卷积与支持向量回归,同时捕捉空间依赖和非线性时间动态。
- 在德里37站、孟买18站数据上,跨季节和异常事件仍保持高精度。
- 结合置信预测生成校准区间,适合需不确定性评估的公共健康决策。
城市空气质量预测面临污染物浓度非线性、非平稳、时空依赖性强等挑战,且易受交通拥堵、工业排放和季节气象变化引起的异常观测影响。本文提出图卷积支持向量回归(GraphSVR)框架,用于鲁棒的时空空气污染预测。该模型结合图卷积学习捕捉站点间空间依赖,利用支持向量回归建模非线性时间动态,同时降低对异常值的敏感性。在印度德里37个监测站和孟买18个监测站的数据上进行评估,覆盖内陆与沿海大都市环境。在多时间步长下对比主流时序与时空基准模型,结果表明GraphSVR持续提升预测准确率,并在不同季节及高污染异常期保持稳定性能。统计检验进一步验证了方法的可靠性。此外,将置信预测方法集成至GraphSVR,生成校准后的预测区间,增强其在不确定性感知的空气质量监测与公共健康决策中的应用价值。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Urban air quality forecasting is challenging because pollutant concentrations are nonlinear, nonstationary, spatiotemporally dependent, and often affected by anomalous observations caused by traffic congestion, industrial emissions, and seasonal meteorological variability. This study proposes a Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression (GraphSVR) framework for robust spatiotemporal forecasting of urban air pollution. The model combines graph convolutional learning to capture inter-station spatial dependence with support vector regression to model nonlinear temporal dynamics while reducing sensitivity to outlier observations. The proposed framework is evaluated using air quality records from 37 monitoring stations in Delhi and 18 stations in Mumbai, representing inland and coastal metropolitan environments in India. Forecasting performance is assessed across multiple horizons and compared with established temporal and spatiotemporal benchmarks. The results show that GraphSVR consistently improves predictive accuracy and maintains stable performance across seasons and outlier-prone pollution episodes. Statistical test further confirms the reliability of the proposed approach across the datasets. Furthermore, the conformal prediction approach is integrated with GraphSVR to generate calibrated prediction intervals, enhancing its practical value for uncertainty-aware air quality monitoring and public health decision-making.
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