提出新方法分析人群对AI态度的差异结构,更准确捕捉不同群体的观点关系。
Heterogeneous Ordinal Structure Learning with Bayesian Nonparametric Complexity Discovery

- 用非参数先验发现潜在群体复杂度,再固定数量验证结构
- 在4788人调查中,误差比单图模型降低25.8%
- 适合研究社会态度、群体差异的学者使用
公众对人工智能的态度具有异质性、序数特征,且难以由单一依赖图刻画。现有方法或假设所有人共享同一有向无环图(DAG),或仅关注子群发现而忽略具体图结构估计,或完全放弃依赖结构。本文提出一种异质序数结构学习框架,结合单调高斯评分嵌入、基于截断棒破分先验的贝叶斯非参数复杂度发现,以及固定K值的确认式稀疏DAG学习。核心思路是发现-确认工作流:非参数阶段校准可能的原型复杂度,内验证确认后获得稳定可解释结构。在2024年皮尤美国趋势面板AI态度调查第152波(W152,N=4,788,8个序数题项)上,确认式K*=5模型相比单图基线,保留样本变换得分均方误差(MSE)降低25.8%,优于仅混合聚类模型4.6%。通过与W152结构匹配的分级半合成基准测试,验证了在不同难度下的恢复能力,并清晰揭示了压力条件下的失效模式。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Public attitudes toward artificial intelligence are heterogeneous, ordinally measured, and poorly captured by any single dependency graph. Existing ordinal structure learners assume a shared directed acyclic graph (DAG) across all respondents; recent heterogeneous ordinal graphical-model approaches focus on subgroup discovery rather than confirmatory cluster-specific DAG estimation; and latent profile analyses discard dependency structure entirely. We introduce a heterogeneous ordinal structure-learning framework combining monotone Gaussian score embedding, Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) complexity discovery via a truncated stick-breaking prior, and confirmatory fixed-K estimation with cluster-specific sparse DAG learning. The key methodological insight is a discovery-to-confirmation workflow: the nonparametric stage calibrates plausible archetype complexity, while inner-validated confirmatory refitting yields stable, interpretable structural estimates. On the 2024 Pew American Trends Panel AI attitudes survey, Wave 152 (W152) survey, (N = 4,788, 8 ordinal items), the confirmatory K*=5 model reduces holdout transformed-score mean squared error (MSE) by 25.8% over a single-graph baseline and by 4.6% over mixture-only clustering. A controlled tiered semi-synthetic benchmark calibrated to W152 structure validates recovery across difficulty regimes and transparently reveals failure modes under stress conditions.
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