用气候数据筛选沙特干旱区可自持恢复的地块,减少盲目投入。
Climate-based Pre-screening of Self-sustaining Regreening Opportunities in Drylands: A Case Study for Saudi Arabia

- 基于机器学习构建气候适宜性评分,识别无需长期灌溉的恢复区域。
- 预测显示13个重点区域有2.5倍植被覆盖提升潜力。
- 适合干旱区生态修复规划者与政策制定者参考。
大规模干地修复被广泛倡导以应对土地退化和生物多样性丧失,但许多项目依赖长期灌溉,在缺水地区难以持续。关键挑战在于识别本地植被可自然维持的地点,同时降低高昂的实地勘察成本。本文提出一种可扩展的预筛选框架,整合气候与遥感数据,以沙特阿拉伯为例,实现干旱环境下的低成本选址。通过机器学习模型训练于专家标注的参考点,构建气候适宜性评分(CSS),捕捉植被存续的复杂气候依赖关系。利用多 年期ERA5-Land数据生成全国范围预测图,并结合植被指数,识别气候适宜但植被发育不足的区域。多准则筛选后确定十三个优先地点。具有气候相似性的完整生态系统为修复目标提供基准,表明平均2.5倍植被覆盖率提升是可行目标。该方法显著缩小搜索范围、降低成本,支持水资源受限地区的韧性生态恢复规划。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Large-scale restoration in drylands is widely promoted to address land degradation and biodiversity loss, yet many efforts rely on long-term irrigation, limiting sustainability in water-scarce regions. A key challenge is identifying locations where native vegetation can persist without intensive management while minimizing costly field campaigns. A scalable pre-screening framework is presented that integrates climate and remote sensing data to enable cost-efficient site selection in arid environments using Saudi Arabia as a case study. A Climate Suitability Score (CSS), derived from machine learning models trained on expert-curated reference sites, captures complex climatic dependencies on vegetation persistence. Using multi-year ERA5-Land data for Saudi Arabia, national-scale prediction maps are generated and combined with vegetation indices to identify areas where climate is favorable, but vegetation remains underdeveloped. Multi-criteria screening reduces candidates to thirteen priority locations. Climatically analogous intact ecosystems provide benchmarks for restoration targets and indicate that an average 2.5 fold increase in vegetation coverage is a realistic target for restoration efforts. Overall, this approach narrows the search space, reduces costs, and supports resilient ecosystem recovery planning in water-limited regions.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。