从交通调查中发现可行动的稀疏干预策略,提升群体行为转变效率
Discovering Sparse Counterfactual Factors via Latent Adjustment for Survey-based Community Intervention

- 用非负潜在表示建模调查变量,保持干预前后可比性
- 通过熵正则最优传输最小化目标组与参照组分布差异
- 识别关键潜在因子并转为可控变量,实现稀疏可执行干预
交通调查广泛用于理解出行偏好与采纳障碍,但多数分析仍停留在描述或预测层面,缺乏稀疏且政策可行的干预策略。本文研究基于调查响应的稀疏反事实社区干预,目标是通过可调控的调查变量调整,将目标人群引导至期望的参照群体。将该任务建模为基于固定基底的非负潜在表示的政策可行分布对齐问题,该表示保留干预前后的可比性,并提供从潜在因子到原始变量的稳定映射。为使潜在变动可操作,利用Shapley值归因识别目标相关潜在因子,并转化为可控变量的干预优先级。通过最小化后干预目标分布与参照分布间的熵正则最优传输差异,结合加权ℓ₂,₁惩罚以促进共享政策杠杆的稀疏性,学习可行的群体级调整。在真实世界交通调查数据集上的实验表明,所提框架生成紧凑可解释的政策可行干预,明确给出调整幅度,提升群体转化率,同时保持干预稀疏性。代码与数据集已公开于:https://github.com/pangjunbiao/latent-group-alignment.git
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Transportation surveys are widely used to understand travel preferences and adoption barriers, yet most survey-based analyses remain descriptive or predictive and rarely provide sparse, policy-feasible intervention strategies. We study sparse counterfactual community intervention from survey responses, where the goal is to shift a target respondent group toward a desired reference group through controllable survey-variable adjustments. We formulate this task as a policy-feasible distributional alignment problem using a fixed-basis nonnegative latent representation that preserves pre/post comparability and provides a stable map from latent factors to original variables. To make latent movement actionable, target-relevant latent factors are identified through Shapley-guided attribution and transferred to controllable variables as intervention priorities. Feasible group-level adjustments are then learned by minimizing an entropy-regularized optimal-transport discrepancy between the post-intervention target distribution and the reference distribution, together with a weighted $\ell_{2,1}$ penalty that promotes shared policy-lever sparsity. Experiments on real-world transportation survey datasets show that the proposed framework produces compact and interpretable policy-feasible interventions with explicit adjustment magnitudes, improves population-level conversion, and preserves intervention sparsity. Code and datasets are publicly available at: https://github.com/pangjunbiao/latent-group-alignment.git
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