arXiv:2605.04510math.OCcs.AI2026-05被引 1

用智能算法优化救火资源分配,减少火灾蔓延面积。

Predictive and Prescriptive AI toward Optimizing Wildfire Suppression

论文配图:Predictive and Prescriptive AI toward Optimizing Wildfire Suppression
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建时空网络模型联合优化人员调度与灭火策略
  • 算法可处理非线性火势发展,实测显著降低过火面积
  • 适合应急决策、灾害管理领域研究人员参考

剧烈的野火季节要求在分散地理区域中对稀缺的扑火资源进行关键优先级决策。本文提出一种预测与决策一体化方法,协同优化扑火人员调度与野火扑救。该问题具有离散资源分配结构,包含内生野火需求和非线性野火动态。我们建立了一个整数优化模型:在时间-空间-休息网络上进行人员调度,在时间-状态网络上模拟野火动态,并通过连接约束将两者耦合。开发了一种双侧列生成-分支定界-割平面算法,包含:(i) 双向列生成机制,迭代生成灭火方案与人员路径;(ii) 基于连接约束背包结构的新一类割;(iii) 适应非线性野火动态的新型分支规则。还提出数据驱动的双重机器学习方法,基于协变量信息与扑救努力估计野火扩散,缓解历史人员调度与火势增长之间的混杂偏差。大量计算实验表明,该算法可扩展至此前不可行的真实世界实例;且方法能显著提升扑救效率,大幅减少一个野火季节的过火面积,并促进跨辖区资源调配。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Intense wildfire seasons require critical prioritization decisions to allocate scarce suppression resources over a dispersed geographical area. This paper develops a predictive and prescriptive approach to jointly optimize crew assignments and wildfire suppression. The problem features a discrete resource-allocation structure with endogenous wildfire demand and non-linear wildfire dynamics. We formulate an integer optimization model with crew assignments on a time-space-rest network, wildfire dynamics on a time-state network, and linking constraints between them. We develop a two-sided branch-and-price-and-cut algorithm based on: (i) a two-sided column generation scheme that generates fire suppression plans and crew routes iteratively; (ii) a new family of cuts exploiting the knapsack structure of the linking constraints; and (iii) novel branching rules to accommodate non-linear wildfire dynamics. We also propose a data-driven double machine learning approach to estimate wildfire spread as a function of covariate information and suppression efforts, mitigating observed confounding between historical crew assignments and wildfire growth. Extensive computational experiments show that the optimization algorithm scales to otherwise intractable real-world instances; and that the methodology can enhance suppression effectiveness in practice, resulting in significant reductions in area burned over a wildfire season and guiding resource sharing across wildfire jurisdictions.

应急管理优化算法野火防治

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