arXiv:2605.04690cs.LGq-fin.MF2026-05

用神经网络参数化金融时间序列的非平稳马尔可夫转移,提升模型可解释性与预测力。

Learning Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Dynamics in Financial Time Series via Neural Parameterization

论文配图:Learning Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Dynamics in Financial Time Series via Neural Parameterization
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用神经网络生成随时间变化的马尔可夫转移矩阵,保持数学结构透明。
  • 状态依赖模型平均行异质性达0.0073,状态无关模型趋近于零,揭示波动率与转移均质性的关联。
  • 将柯尔莫哥洛夫方程转为局部诊断工具,识别记忆失效的关键时段,适合量化金融研究者。

建模非平稳随机系统需平衡深度学习的表征能力与经典模型的数学透明性。经典马尔可夫转移算子虽具理论基础,但在高分辨率、高噪声环境下因数据稀疏导致经验估计失效。本文以金融时间序列为典型真实场景,探索此统计瓶颈。为克服经验计数退化问题,提出框架:仅将神经网络作为参数化引擎,生成显式的时间变马尔可夫转移矩阵。通过约束网络输出为合法概率算子,确保完全结构可解释性。结果表明,所学算子成功捕捉复杂状态转换:状态条件模型的平均行异质性为 $\barρ = 0.0073$,而状态无关消融模型趋近于零;算子行熵与实际波动率相关系数 $r = -0.62$($p \approx 10^{-251}$),揭示高波动率时期反而使转移动态趋于同质。此外,不强制满足柯尔莫哥洛夫方程,而是将其作为局部诊断工具,精准定位一阶记忆假设失效的时间窗口。该框架证明,经适当约束的神经网络可使经典算子分析在复杂真实时间序列中重新可行。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Modeling the dynamics of non-stationary stochastic systems requires balancing the representational power of deep learning with the mathematical transparency of classical models. While classical Markov transition operators provide explicit, theoretically grounded rules for system evolution, their empirical estimation collapses due to severe data sparsity when applied to high-resolution, high-noise environments. We explore this statistical barrier using financial time series as a canonical, real-world testbed. To overcome the degeneracy of empirical counting, we introduce a framework that utilizes neural networks strictly as parameterization engines to generate explicit, time-varying Markov transition matrices. By constraining the neural network to output its predictions as a formal stochastic operator, we maintain complete structural interpretability. We demonstrate that these learned operators successfully capture complex regime shifts: the state-conditioned model achieves mean row heterogeneity $\barρ = 0.0073$ while the state-free ablation collapses to exactly zero, and operator row entropy correlates with realized variance at $r = -0.62$ ($p \approx 10^{-251}$), revealing that high-volatility regimes homogenize transition dynamics rather than diversify them. Furthermore, rather than enforcing the Chapman-Kolmogorov equations as a rigid structural requirement, we repurpose them as a localized diagnostic tool to pinpoint specific temporal windows where first-order memory assumptions break down. Ultimately, this framework demonstrates how neural networks can be constrained to make rigorous, classical operator analysis viable for complex real-world time series.

金融时间序列马尔可夫模型神经网络可解释性

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