用神经网络学习随机微分方程的后验轨迹,实现稀疏数据下高效稳定推断。
Variational Smoothing and Inference for SDEs from Sparse Data with Dynamic Neural Flows

- 基于后验得分的变分方法,结合连续动态与离散观测更新。
- 仅需少量观测即可准确推断轨迹,比传统MCMC更高效。
- 适合建模稀疏观测下的动态系统,如生物、金融时间序列。
随机微分方程(SDE)为部分可观测系统的时序动态建模提供了灵活框架。核心任务是从数据中校准模型,需从稀疏噪声观测中推断隐变量轨迹和参数。经典平滑方法常受路径退化和可扩展性差限制。本文提出一种新方法:通过求解带有乘法更新的柯尔莫哥洛夫后向方程,将后验SDE表征为条件反向得分(即函数梯度),并用神经网络学习该得分,使其同时满足控制偏微分方程和观测时刻的跳跃条件,从而融合连续动态与离散贝叶斯更新。所得得分诱导出具有相同扩散系数但修正漂移项的后验SDE,支持高效轨迹采样。进一步推导了基于似然的目标函数,获得联合状态平滑与参数估计的证据下界(ELBO),形成变分EM流程:先优化神经得分以逼近平滑分布,再用后验样本最大化参数。在非线性系统上的实验表明,即使仅有极少观测,也能实现准确稳定的推断,相比经典MCMC显著提升可扩展性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provide a flexible framework for modeling temporal dynamics in partially observed systems. A central task is to calibrate such models from data, which requires inferring latent trajectories and parameters from sparse, noisy observations. Classical smoothing methods for this problem are often limited by path degeneracy and poor scalability. In this work, we developed a novel method based on characterization of the posterior SDE in terms of conditional backward-in-time score defined as the gradient of a function solving a Kolmogorov backward equation with multiplicative updates at observation times. We learn this conditional score using neural networks trained to satisfy both the governing PDE and the observation-induced jump conditions, thereby integrating continuous-time dynamics with discrete Bayesian updates. The resulting score induces a posterior SDE with the same diffusion coefficient but a modified drift, enabling efficient posterior trajectory sampling. We further derive a likelihood-based objective for learning the SDE parameters, yielding an evidence lower bound (ELBO) for joint state smoothing and parameter estimation. This leads to a variational EM-style procedure, where the neural conditional score is optimized to approximate the smoothing distribution, followed by a maximization step over the SDE parameters using samples from the induced posterior. Experiments on nonlinear systems demonstrate accurate and stable inference with a very few observations demonstrating significant improved scalability compared to classical MCMC methods.
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