把安全认证当分类问题,避免递推误差,提升系统安全性评估可靠性。
Safety Certification is Classification

- 将安全认证转为轨迹数据上的分类任务,直接估计多步安全概率
- 在非马尔可夫系统中仍保持稳定,且不随时间步数增加而失效
- 适用于神经控制无人机等复杂系统,适合高可靠性场景
本文旨在对存在不确定性的动态系统进行安全认证。现有方法通过轨迹数据估计转移概率,并使用动态规划(DP)递归计算安全概率,但该递推过程会导致安全概率的误差不断累积,使得长时间预测下认证结果退化为无意义的下界。为此,我们提出一种核嵌入框架,将安全认证视为轨迹数据上的分类问题,直接估计 T 步安全概率,无需递归。该框架涵盖了文献中经典方法(如屏障证书、鲁棒马尔可夫模型)作为特例,并突破其局限。主要成果是规避了随时间步数增长的误差累积,实现了对非马尔可夫动力系统的有效认证。仿真验证表明,直接估计器在任意时间步长和非马尔可夫设置下均保持稳定,而基于动态规划的证书则悄然失效。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The goal of this paper is certifying safety of dynamical systems subject to uncertainty. Existing approaches use trajectory data to estimate transition probabilities, and compute safety probabilities recursively via dynamic programming (DP). This recursion may lead to compounding errors in the certified safety probability, thus collapsing to a vacuous lower bound for growing horizons $T$. We propose a kernel embedding framework that treats safety certification as a classification problem on trajectory data, directly estimating the $T$-step safety probability without recursion. We show that the framework subsumes well-established approaches from the literature (e.g., barrier certificates, robust Markov models) as special cases, and allows us to go beyond their limitations. As the main consequence, it bypasses compounding error across the horizon and enables certification for systems with non-Markovian dynamics. We demonstrate that direct estimators remain stable independent of the certification horizon and in the non-Markovian setting, whilst DP-based certificates silently go unsound -- confirmed in simulation on a neural-controlled quadrotor.
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