直接优化预测区域形状,实现更精准的多维分位数回归。
Super-Level-Set Regression: Conditional Quantiles via Volume Minimization

- 通过体积最小化直接优化条件预测集边界
- 无需估计完整条件密度,避免两阶段误差累积
- 适合处理多峰、不连通等复杂分布结构
构建满足条件覆盖的最小体积预测区域是多元回归中的基础挑战。传统方法需先显式估计全条件密度,再进行阈值处理,该两步插补过程极易受估计误差影响且计算成本高。理想情况下应直接优化预测区域。然而,这面临难题:需最小化与模型自身估计误差条件分位数耦合的体积目标。本文提出超水平集回归(SLS),一种新颖数学框架,成功解除了这种隐式耦合,使我们能直接参数化并优化目标条件水平集的几何边界。通过跳过完整分布估计,利用灵活的保体积边界函数,本方法端到端捕捉复杂的多模态和不连通条件结构。SLS为多元条件分位数回归提供了新视角,以直接几何优化策略替代了依赖密度先验的严格假设。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Constructing minimum-volume prediction regions that satisfy conditional coverage is a fundamental challenge in multivariate regression. Standard approaches rely on explicitly estimating the full conditional density and subsequently thresholding it. This two-step plug-in process is notoriously difficult, sensitive to estimation errors, and computationally expensive. One would like to instead optimize the region directly. Formulating a direct solution is challenging, however, because it requires minimizing a volume objective that is coupled with the conditional quantiles of the model's own estimation error. In this work, we address this challenge. We introduce super-level-set regression (SLS), a novel mathematical framework that successfully resolves this implicit coupling, allowing us to directly parameterize and optimize the geometric boundaries of the target conditional level sets. By bypassing full distribution estimation and leveraging flexible volume-preserving frontier functions, our approach natively captures complex, multimodal, and disjoint conditional structures end-to-end. Ultimately, SLS offers a new perspective on multivariate conditional quantile regression, replacing the restrictive assumptions of density-first methods with a direct geometric optimization strategy.
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