arXiv:2605.06337cs.CV2026-05被引 1

不用网格的地球大气模型,直接从观测数据预测天气变化。

Earth-o1: A Grid-free Observation-native Atmospheric World Model

论文配图:Earth-o1: A Grid-free Observation-native Atmospheric World Model
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 跳过传统网格,直接从原始观测数据学习大气三维连续演化。
  • 在历史数据回溯测试中,地表预报精度媲美主流气象系统IFS。
  • 适合需要实时天气预测和多源传感器融合的研究者使用。

尽管现代地球观测系统提供了前所未有的多模态数据,我们对大气动力学的建模能力仍受限制。传统建模框架迫使异构观测数据进入预定义的空间网格,从根本上限制了原始传感器数据的充分利用,并造成严重的计算瓶颈。本文提出Earth-o1,一种观察原生的大气世界模型,突破了这些结构性限制。Earth-o1不依赖传统的气象动力模型或数据同化方法,而是直接从非网格化的观测数据中学习地球系统的连续三维物理演化过程。通过将多种传感器输入整合为统一的无网格动力场,模型可自主推进大气状态在时空上的演变。我们证明,这一根本性新范式实现了无需显式数值求解器的直接、实时预报与跨传感器推断。在回溯测试中,Earth-o1的地表预报技能达到与运行中的集成预报系统(IFS)相当的水平。结果表明,连续的、以观测驱动的世界模型——这一全新的全观测原生地球物理模拟器类别——能够匹配现有物理框架的保真度,为地球数字孪生提供可扩展的数据驱动基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Despite the unprecedented volume of multimodal data provided by modern Earth observation systems, our ability to model atmospheric dynamics remains constrained. Traditional modeling frameworks force heterogeneous measurements into predefined spatial grids, inherently limiting the full exploitation of raw sensor data and creating severe computational bottlenecks. Here we present Earth-o1, an observation-native atmospheric world model that overcomes these structural limitations. Rather than relying on conventional atmospheric dynamical modeling systems or traditional data assimilation, Earth-o1 directly learns the continuous, three-dimensional physical evolution of the Earth system from ungridded observational data. By integrating diverse sensor inputs into a unified, grid-free dynamical field, the model autonomously advances the atmospheric state in space and time. We show that this fundamentally distinct paradigm enables direct, real-time forecasting and cross-sensor inference without the overhead of explicit numerical solvers. In hindcast evaluations, Earth-o1 achieves surface forecast skill comparable to the operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). These results establish that continuous, observation-driven world models -- a new class of fully observation-native geophysical simulators -- can match the fidelity of established physical frameworks, providing a scalable data-driven foundation for a digital twin of the Earth.

大气建模观测原生世界模型数字孪生

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