arXiv:2605.06438stat.MLcs.LG2026-05

用神经网络+精算锚定,提升长寿风险预测精度。

Neural-Actuarial Longevity Forecasting: Anchoring LSTMs for Explainable Risk Management

论文配图:Neural-Actuarial Longevity Forecasting: Anchoring LSTMs for Explainable Risk Management
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 融合层次LSTM与偏差修正机制,解决传统模型的非线性问题。
  • 在瑞典和西德数据上比经典模型提升12.57%至17.40%。
  • 适合监管合规、风险建模人员参考,支持可解释决策。

传统多人口模型(如Li-Lee框架)依赖于国家特异性死亡率偏离均值回归的假设,但高预期寿命群体的最新数据揭示了该范式的系统性断裂。我们发现死亡率残差存在平稳性悖论:瑞典和西德等国呈现持续单位根特征,导致线性模型对长寿风险系统性误定价。为此,提出Hybrid-Lift神经-精算框架,结合分层LSTM网络与均值偏差修正(MBC)锚定机制。作为治理友好型模型挑战者,其在2012–2020年外样本验证中表现更优:瑞典优于Li-Lee 17.40%,西德优于12.57%,而在瑞士、日本等近线性区域保持相当。配套提供基于SHAP的跨国影响图谱、双不确定性框架用于监管资本校准(瑞士ES 99.0%为+1.153年),以及反向压力测试识别偿付能力耗尽临界冲击。研究证明,经精算原则锚定的神经网络可在SST与Solvency II标准下有效充当长寿风险建模的挑战者。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Traditional multi-population models, such as the Li-Lee framework, rely on the assumption of mean-reverting country-specific deviations. However, recent data from high-longevity clusters suggest a systemic break in this paradigm. We identify a stationarity paradox where mortality residuals in countries like Sweden and West Germany exhibit persistent unit roots, leading to a systematic mispricing of longevity risk in linear models. To address these non-linearities, we propose Hybrid-Lift, a neural-actuarial framework that combines Hierarchical LSTM networks with a Mean-Bias Correction (MBC) anchoring mechanism. Positioned as a governance-friendly model challenger rather than a replacement of classical approaches, the framework exhibits selective superiority on out-of-sample validation (2012-2020): it outperforms Li-Lee by 17.40% in Sweden and 12.57% in West Germany, while remaining comparable for near-linear regimes such as Switzerland and Japan. We complement the predictive model with an integrated governance suite comprising SHAP-based cross-country influence mapping, a dual uncertainty framework for regulatory capital calibration (Swiss ES 99.0% of +1.153 years), and a reverse stress test identifying the critical shock threshold for solvency buffer exhaustion. This research provides evidence that neural networks, when properly anchored by actuarial principles, can serve as effective model challengers for longevity risk management under the SST and Solvency II standards.

长寿风险神经网络精算模型可解释性

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。