提出一种自适应记忆的在线预测方法,应对数据分布变化时的性能波动。
Hedging Memory Horizons for Non-Stationary Prediction via Online Aggregation

- 通过多遗忘因子加权最小二乘法,融合不同记忆长度的预测器
- 在法国电力负荷预测中实现34.7%的RMSE降低,优于基准模型
- 无需外部政策信息,轻量级更新,适合实时非平稳预测场景
我们研究在分布漂移下的在线预测问题,输入按时间顺序到达,输出仅在预测后才可获得。在此设定下,预测器需在稳定时期保持稳定,在状态切换时快速适应,但合适的适应记忆长度事先未知。本文提出MELO(Memory-hedged Exponentially Weighted Least-Squares Online aggregation):一种模型无关的方法,通过在多个遗忘因子下使用指数加权最小二乘法(EWLS)适应专家,对原始预测和经EWLS调整的预测进行聚合,采用无参数的MLpol在线聚合规则。在有界条件下,我们建立了确定性最优不等式,表明其性能可媲美最佳原始预测器及最佳有界时变仿射组合预测,仅需路径长度相关的跟踪代价与次线性聚合开销。我们在法国全国电力负荷预测任务中评估了该方法,覆盖新冠封锁期间,未使用任何状态指示、封锁日期或政策协变量。实验显示,相较于仅使用基础模型的MLpol,MELO相对降低了34.7%的总体RMSE,且优于引入外部疫情政策响应协变量的TabICL基线。此外,MELO仅需轻量级递推更新,无需重新训练模型。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We study online prediction under distribution shift, where inputs arrive chronologically and outcomes are revealed only after prediction. In this setting, predictors must remain stable in quiet regimes yet adapt when regimes shift, and the right adaptation memory is unknown in advance. We propose MELO (Memory-hedged Exponentially Weighted Least-Squares Online aggregation), a model-agnostic method that hedges across adaptation scales: it wraps any non-anticipating base-predictor pool with exponentially weighted least-squares (EWLS) adaptation experts at multiple forgetting factors, and aggregates raw and EWLS-adapted forecasts with MLpol, a parameter-free online aggregation rule. Under boundedness conditions, we establish deterministic oracle inequalities showing that it competes with both the best raw predictor and the best bounded, time-varying affine combinations of the base predictions, up to a path-length-dependent tracking cost and a sublinear aggregation overhead. We evaluate MELO on French national electricity-load forecasting through the COVID-19 lockdown using no regime indicators, lockdown dates, or policy covariates. MELO reduces overall RMSE by 34.7\% relative to base-only MLpol and achieves lower overall RMSE than a TabICL reference supplied with an external COVID policy-response covariate. Moreover, MELO requires only lightweight per-step recursive updates without model retraining.
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