动态调整网络中谁该被治疗及何时治疗,提升干预效果。
Dynamic Treatment on Networks

- 用贝叶斯动态伊辛模型估计网络传播过程
- 通过后验潜变量增强治疗历史,实现自适应策略
- 在真实微金融数据上优于传统中心性方法
在网络中,有效的动态干预需同时决定对谁干预以及何时干预,以利用节点间的溢出效应放大政策影响。早期在高连接度节点的干预可能引发级联效应,从而改变下一期值得干预的节点。现有处理策略大多为静态,而动态框架通常忽略网络结构。本文提出Q-Ising三阶段流程:(i)基于单次观测面板,用贝叶斯动态伊辛模型估计网络采纳动态;(ii)将治疗采纳历史与连续后验潜变量结合;(iii)通过离线强化学习学习动态策略。贝叶斯机制可量化决策不确定性,生成具有可解释溢出估计的后验集成策略。我们给出了有限样本后悔上界,分解为标准离线强化学习不确定性、网络抽象误差和伊辛状态估计误差。在印度村庄微金融网络数据及模拟异质易感-感染-易感(SIS)动力学下的合成块模型中,自适应目标选择优于静态中心性基准。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In networks, effective dynamic treatment allocation requires deciding both whom to treat and also when, so as to amplify policy impact through spillovers. An early intervention at a well-connected node can trigger cascades that change which nodes are worth targeting in the next period. Existing treatment strategies under network interference are largely static while dynamic treatment frameworks typically ignore network structure altogether. We integrate these perspectives and propose Q-Ising, a three-stage pipeline that (i) estimates network adoption dynamics via a Bayesian dynamic Ising model from a single observed panel, (ii) augments treatment adoption histories with continuous posterior latent states, and (iii) learns a dynamic policy via offline reinforcement learning. The Bayesian mechanism enables uncertainty quantification over dynamic decisions, yielding posterior ensemble policies with interpretable spillover estimates. We provide a finite-sample regret upper bound that decomposes into standard offline-RL uncertainty, network abstraction error, and first stage error in Ising state estimation. We apply our method to data from Indian village microfinance networks and synthetic stochastic block models under simulated heterogeneous susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics and demonstrate that adaptive targeting outperforms static centrality benchmarks.
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