提出双尺度融合方法,提升未来30-90天气温预测精度。
Dual-Scale Temporal Fusion Reveals Structured Predictability in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Temperature Prediction

- 分离历史气候与近期天气,通过自适应融合提升预测稳定性。
- 冬季高纬度地区依赖年际气候背景,夏季贡献更均衡。
- 适用于农业、能源及极端天气风险预警场景。
亚季节到季节(S2S)温度预报(30至90天)在农业、能源规划和极端天气风险管理中至关重要,但其可靠性随季节和地区差异显著。传统观点认为预报技巧主要受预报时效影响,但无法解释预测能力的时空分布模式。本文揭示S2S可预报性由相互作用的时间尺度、空间异质性和大尺度模式一致性共同构成,并可通过显式建模加以利用。我们提出一种双尺度学习框架,将日历对齐的历史气候上下文与时效匹配的近期天气演变分离,通过空间自适应融合实现稳定预报。学习到的融合权重表明,季节和地理差异导致两时间尺度的平衡系统性变化:冬季高纬度和复杂地形区以年际背景为主导,而夏季则贡献趋于均衡。这种空间显式的可预报性重组,而非简单的时效衰减,成为亚季节窗口内预报技巧的主要决定因素。拓扑感知结构约束进一步增强预测场的空间一致性,尤其在复杂地形区域。结果将S2S可预报性重构为多尺度结构性现象,为改进预报系统提供更可解释的基础,并指导实际应用。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) temperature forecasts, spanning several weeks to a few months, are critically needed in agriculture practice, energy planning, and extreme-weather induced risk management, yet their reliability varies substantially across seasons and regions. Forecast skill is often attributed primarily to lead time, but this perspective does not fully explain the spatiotemporal patterns of predictability. Here we show that S2S predictability is organized across interacting temporal components, spatial heterogeneity, and large-scale pattern coherence, and that this structure can be explicitly characterized and exploited. We develop a dual-scale learning framework that separates calendar-aligned historical climate context from lead-time matched recent weather evolution, combining them through spatially adaptive fusion to enable stable temperature forecasts across the 30 to 90-day window. The learned fusion weights reveal that the balance between these two temporal scales shifts systematically with season and geography: during winter, interannual context dominates over high latitudes and complex terrain where forecast is the most difficult, while summer predictions reflect a more balanced temporal contribution across the domain. This spatially explicit reorganization of predictability, rather than simple lead-time decay, emerges as the primary determinant of forecast skill within the subseasonal window. Topology-aware structural constraints further improve spatial coherence of predicted temperature fields, stabilizing large-scale pattern organization particularly over complex terrain. These results reframe S2S predictability as a structured, multi-scale phenomenon, providing a more interpretable foundation for improving forecast systems and informing their use in practice.
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