arXiv:2605.06993cs.AIstat.ML2026-05

在有限实验预算下,选出能最有效缩小因果效应估计范围的实验组合。

Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification

论文配图:Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于因果图和查询条件,设计可快速评估实验价值的方法。
  • 在真实数据上验证,可显著缩小糖尿病与运动关系的估计误差范围。
  • 适合需要高效设计实验的因果推断研究者使用。

因果推断常仅能部分识别目标效应,而实验往往成本高昂。本文研究在未观测实验结果前,如何选择成本受限的实验子集,以最大化收紧目标因果查询的估计边界。提出“最大潜力”问题,用“认知潜力”衡量实验在最坏情况下对边界宽度的缩减能力,并证明该问题为NP难(通过0-1背包问题归约)。基于Duarte等(2023)的多项式规划框架,给出离散场景中评估认知潜力的一般方法。为控制超指数搜索空间,引入两种仅依赖因果图与查询的图形剪枝准则:一种基于区块结构的路径拦截规则,可在线性时间内判定零潜力;另一种基于ID算法的可识别性检验。在Erdos-Renyi随机图与11个bnlearn基准网络上,两者结合平均剪枝50%-88%候选实验,无需求解任何多项式程序。对于一般子集搜索,证明经ID剪枝后的实验组合在组合上无影响,实现超指数级减少评估子集数量。最后在观测的NHANES数据上完成端到端演示,成功选出最优实验以估计体力活动对糖尿病的影响。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Causal queries are often only partially identifiable from observational data, and experiments that could tighten the resulting bounds are typically costly. We study the problem of selecting, prior to observing experimental outcomes, a cost-constrained subset of experiments that maximally tightens bounds on a target query. We formalize this as the max-potency problem, where epistemic potency measures the worst-case reduction in bound width guaranteed by an experiment, and show that this problem is NP-hard via a reduction from 0-1 knapsack. Building on the polynomial-programming framework of Duarte et al. (2023), we give a general procedure for evaluating epistemic potency in discrete settings. To control the super-exponential search space, we introduce two graphical pruning criteria that depend only on the causal graph and the query: a novel path-interception rule that exploits district structure to certify zero potency in linear time, and an identifiability check based on the ID algorithm. On Erdos-Renyi random graphs and 11 bnlearn benchmark networks, the two criteria together prune 50-88% of candidate experiments on average without solving a single polynomial program. For the general subset search, we show that ID-pruned experiments are combinatorially inert, yielding a super-exponential reduction in the number of subsets evaluated. We close with an end-to-end demonstration on observational NHANES data, selecting optimal experiments for estimating the effect of physical activity on diabetes.

因果推断实验设计图模型优化

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