用深度玻尔兹曼机构建营销决策的统一世界模型,同时支持一致性评估、预测与反事实推断。
Three-in-One World Model: Energy-Based Consistency, Prediction, and Counterfactual Inference for Marketing Intervention

- 基于DBM学习消费者隐变量信念,通过轻量适配器实现多任务统一建模。
- 在模拟数据中,对购买和访问的AUC表现优于多种主流方法,尤其在混淆干预下优势显著。
- 可稳定捕捉个体差异,适合需要精准个性化干预的营销研究者使用。
营销决策反映了潜在消费者异质性、随时间变化的内部状态与显式干预之间的相互作用,现有以预测和语言为导向的模型未能统一建模这一结构。本文提出一种三合一世界模型架构:利用深度玻尔兹曼机(DBM)从人口统计、时间与滞后行为及结果中学习一个冻结的信念表示,并在其上附加轻量级任务适配器。同一信念支撑三个任务:(i) 通过DBM的自由能进行能量基一致性评估;(ii) 通过适配器进行结果预测;(iii) 固定信念仅改变动作输入实现反事实推断。在已知每个消费者的潜在价格敏感度、促销响应性和基础偏好的受控模拟中,适配器在访问与购买的AUC上达到与强基线MLP相当的性能,同时对异质性处理效应的恢复显著优于S-、T-、X-和DR-learner元学习器以及基于相同原始特征的因果森林基线,尤其在混杂的价格-促销干预中差距最大。此外,自由能钳制系统对缺乏前期促销暴露的反事实购买轨迹施加系统性惩罚,且惩罚强度与预期方向一致地依赖于潜在基础偏好。结果表明,DBM信念能以可存活于反事实查询的形式解耦潜在特质,为营销干预提供一体化世界模型基础。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Marketing decisions reflect the interaction of latent consumer heterogeneity, time-varying internal states, and explicit interventions, a structure that current prediction- and language-oriented models do not capture in a unified manner. We propose a Three-in-One world-model architecture in which a Deep Boltzmann Machine (DBM) learns a frozen belief representation from demographics, time, and lagged actions and outcomes, with lightweight task-specific adapters attached on top. The same belief supports three tasks within a single framework: (i) energy-based consistency evaluation through the DBM's free energy, (ii) outcome prediction through adapters, and (iii) counterfactual inference by holding the belief fixed and varying only the action input given to the adapter. Using a controlled simulation in which the latent price sensitivity, promotion responsiveness, and base preference of each consumer are known, we show that the adapters match a strong MLP baseline on visit- and purchase-AUC while recovering heterogeneous treatment effects substantially better than S-, T-, X-, and DR-learner meta-learners and a Causal Forest baseline built on the same raw features, with the largest gap on a confounded price-promotion intervention. Complementing this, free-energy clamps systematically penalize counterfactual purchase trajectories that lack prior promotional exposure, and the penalty itself depends on the latent base preference in the expected direction. These results indicate that DBM beliefs disentangle latent traits in a form that survives counterfactual queries, providing an integrated world-model substrate for marketing intervention.
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