Arrow用大模型零样本发现数据中的因果关系,又快又准。
Arrow: A Foundation Model for Causal Discovery
- 将因果图分解为无向骨架和拓扑顺序,构建时保证无环。
- 在合成数据上训练,新数据推理速度比同类方法快10倍以上。
- 无需微调,可直接用于真实数据,适合快速探索因果结构的场景。
我们提出 Arrow,一个用于观测型表格数据的零样本因果发现基础模型。Arrow 将有向无环图(DAG)分解为无向骨架和拓扑顺序,通过骨架-顺序因子化构造过程确保无环性。面对新数据集,它采用基于 Transformer 的架构,对变量在样本内及跨样本进行上下文建模,进而预测边存在概率与节点排序得分,共同定义最终因果图。Arrow 在包含多种图结构、函数形式、噪声模型和数据形状的合成数据集上进行监督训练,使用由骨架-顺序因子化诱导的端到端可微有向边复合似然。在合成、半合成及真实数据集上,无论分布内还是分布外,Arrow 均达到或超越现有方法性能,且推理成本远低于竞争方法。结果表明,大规模多样合成数据预训练可生成高效、准确、可复用的零样本因果发现模型。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We introduce Arrow, a foundation model for zero-shot causal discovery on observational tabular data. Arrow factorizes a directed acyclic graph into an undirected skeleton and a topological order, guaranteeing acyclicity by construction. Given a new dataset, it uses a transformer-based architecture to contextualize variables within and across observations, then predicts skeleton edge probabilities and node order scores that together define a graph. Arrow is trained in a supervised fashion on synthetic datasets with ground-truth graphs, using an end-to-end differentiable directed edge composite likelihood induced by the skeleton-order factorization. The training distribution spans diverse graph families, functional forms, noise models, and dataset shapes. Across in- and out-of-distribution synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real datasets, Arrow matches or outperforms existing causal discovery methods at substantially lower inference cost than competitive alternatives. Our results demonstrate that large-scale pretraining on diverse synthetic data can yield zero-shot causal discovery models that are fast, accurate, and reusable on new datasets.
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