用动态图建模个体健康变化,实现个性化干预推理。
PerCaM-Health: Personalized Dynamic Causal Graphs for Healthcare Reasoning

- 融合群体知识与个体时序数据,渐进式更新因果图结构。
- 在模拟数据上提升因果边追踪准确率与干预方向预测性能。
- 适合临床决策支持、个性化健康管理等场景使用。
个性化医疗决策需要理解生理和行为变量如何随时间影响特定患者。现有时序因果发现方法难以适应这一需求:群体级模型虽稳定但不个性化,而个体层面的发现因轨迹短、噪声大、不平稳且不规则而不可靠。这导致了群体因果建模与个体化、时变机制之间的根本性差距。本文提出PerCaM-Health框架,从纵向健康数据中学习个性化动态因果图。该框架先构建基于知识引导的群体时序图,再通过患者特有时序证据与滚动窗口更新,保守地适应并演化该图,生成可解释、可审计的图序列。结合时序结构方程,该框架支持个体层面的反事实查询,如估算假设行为干预下短期结果的变化。在半合成动态健康基准上的实验表明,相比群体级、个体级及非个性化时序基线,PerCaM-Health在图恢复、动态边追踪和干预方向准确性方面均有显著提升。结果表明,联合建模个性化与时间演化能获得更可靠的因果结构与干预推理能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Personalized healthcare decisions require reasoning about how physiological and behavioral variables influence an individual patient over time. Existing temporal causal discovery methods are poorly matched to this setting: cohort-level models provide stable but non-personalized structures, while per-patient discovery is unreliable because individual trajectories are short, noisy, irregular, and non-stationary. This creates a fundamental gap between population-level causal modeling and the patient-specific, time-varying mechanisms needed for intervention reasoning. We introduce PerCaM-Health, a framework for learning personalized dynamic causal graphs from longitudinal health data. The framework learns a knowledge-guided population temporal graph, then conservatively adapts and evolves it using patient-specific temporal evidence and rolling-window updates, producing interpretable and auditable graph sequences. By coupling these graphs with temporal structural equations, the framework enables patient-level counterfactual queries, such as estimating short-horizon outcome changes under hypothetical behavioral interventions. Experiments on a semi-synthetic dynamic health benchmark show that PerCaM-Health improves graph recovery, dynamic edge tracking, and intervention direction accuracy compared to cohort-level, per-patient, and non-personalized temporal baselines. These results demonstrate that jointly modeling personalization and temporal evolution yields more reliable causal structure and intervention reasoning.
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