arXiv:2605.07301cs.AI2026-05

用因果图建模对手行为,让大模型更准更稳地预测博弈策略。

SOM: Structured Opponent Modeling for LLM-based Agents via Structural Causal Model

论文配图:SOM: Structured Opponent Modeling for LLM-based Agents via Structural Causal Model
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 分两阶段建模:先用因果图显式构建对手行为结构
  • 在多智能体基准上超越现有方法,提升预测准确率与稳定性
  • 适合需要动态博弈决策的AI代理开发,如游戏或协作系统

在多智能体和博弈论环境中,准确预测对手行为是基于大语言模型(LLM)的智能体的核心能力。现有方法常将建模与预测混为一谈,依赖隐式上下文推理,限制了在动态交互中的适应性。为此,我们提出结构化对手建模(SOM),一种两阶段框架,明确分离对手模型构建与预测过程。在构建阶段,SOM采用结构因果模型(SCM),以图形式表示变量间的依赖关系,捕捉对手观测与行动之间的有向关联,生成显式、结构化的对手表征。在预测阶段,LLM沿从SCM推导出的清晰路径进行结构化推理,提升了预测精度与稳定性。在多个多智能体基准上的实验表明,SOM持续优于当前最先进的基于LLM的推理基线,使复杂且动态的多智能体互动中实现更精准、更具适应性的战略决策。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurately predicting opponents' behavior from interactions is a fundamental capability for large language model (LLM)-based agents in multi-agent and game-theoretic environments. Existing approaches often entangle opponent modeling with prediction, relying on implicit contextual reasoning and limiting adaptability in dynamic interactions. To this end, we propose Structured Opponent Modeling (SOM), a two-stage opponent modeling framework that distinctly separates opponent model construction and opponent prediction. At the construction stage, SOM employs a Structural Causal Model (SCM), a graph-based formalism for representing dependencies among variables, to capture directed links between opponents' observations and actions, yielding an explicit and structured opponent representation. At the prediction stage, the LLM performs structured reasoning along clear pathways derived from the SCM, improving both prediction accuracy and stability. Extensive experiments on diverse multi-agent benchmarks demonstrate that SOM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art LLM-based reasoning baselines, enabling more accurate and adaptable strategic decision-making in complex and dynamic multi-agent interactions.

多智能体因果建模博弈决策

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