用动态传播特征和对话AI,实时预测航班延误。
FlightSense: An End-to-End MLOps Platform for Real-Time Flight Delay Prediction via Rotation-Chain Propagation Features and Agentic Conversational AI

- 基于飞机轮换链追踪延迟传播,构建动态特征
- 最终模型在707万条数据上达AUC 0.879
- 支持自然语言查询的实时交互系统
航班延误在航空网络中引发连锁运营与财务损失,每年给美国经济造成数十亿美元损失。现有机器学习方法多将上游延误视为静态输入,未显式建模其在飞机轮换链中的动态传播过程,且缺乏实时交互界面。本文提出FlightSense,一个端到端的MLOps平台,通过渐进式三阶段特征工程实现实时航班延误预测。第一阶段在707万条BTS 2018准点性能数据上使用11个计划特征训练XGBoost分类器,基准AUC为0.732;第二阶段引入基于尾号追踪的11个延迟传播特征,使AUC提升至0.875,优于周(2025)报告的单阶段基线;第三阶段融合10个主要机场的5个NOAA气象特征,最终测试集AUC达0.879。该平台部署于AWS生产环境,包含实时天气数据流(Lambda)、SageMaker实时推理、交互式Streamlit仪表板及基于Amazon Bedrock Nova Micro的对话助手,支持自然语言查询延迟问题。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Flight delays impose cascading operational and financial burdens across the aviation network, costing the U.S. economy billions of dollars annually by disrupting interconnected aircraft rotation systems. While prior machine learning approaches have demonstrated strong predictive performance, most treat upstream delays as static input variables rather than explicitly modeling how delays propagate dynamically through aircraft rotation chains, and none have deployed such systems alongside a live weather-aware conversational AI interface for end-user interaction. This paper presents FlightSense, an end-to-end MLOps platform for real-time flight delay prediction built through a progressive three-version feature engineering framework. Version 1 trains an XGBoost classifier on 11 schedule-based features establishing a baseline ROC AUC of 0.732 on 7.07 million BTS 2018 On-Time Performance records. Version 2 introduces 11 delay propagation features derived from aircraft rotation chains via tail-number tracking, yielding the dominant performance gain (AUC 0.732 to 0.875) and surpassing the single-stage XGBoost baseline reported by Zhou (2025). Version 3 integrates five NOAA meteorological features across 10 major U.S. airports, achieving a final test set AUC of 0.879. FlightSense is deployed as a production AWS MLOps pipeline incorporating live weather ingestion via Lambda, real-time SageMaker inference, an interactive Streamlit dashboard, and an Amazon Bedrock Nova Micro conversational assistant answering natural-language delay queries via a tool-use architecture.
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