检验想象未来是否真实可信,提升机器人决策可靠性
Is the Future Compatible? Diagnosing Dynamic Consistency in World Action Models

- 提出动作-状态一致性作为评估模型想象未来的可靠指标
- 发现一致性能有效区分成功与失败的推理路径,且与价值估计趋势一致
- 设计无需奖励模型的投票筛选策略,提升真实环境任务成功率
世界动作模型(WAMs)通过预测未来观测与动作来实现决策规划,但其生成未来的真实性尚未充分检验:所生成的未来是否仅视觉合理,还是与动作序列动态兼容?本文识别出动作-状态一致性——即预测动作与引发的状态转移之间的对齐程度——是当前WAMs缺失的关键可靠性维度。通过对代表性联合预测和逆动力学模型的系统研究,发现动作-状态一致性在多个任务中能有效区分成功与失败的推理路径,且其成功-失败趋势与学习到的价值估计高度一致。结果表明,该一致性捕捉了超越视觉真实的决策相关结构。此外,我们发现背景坍缩是一个重要边界条件:低动态性的失败轨迹因静态未来更易预测,可能产生虚假的一致性。基于此,我们提出一种测试时无需额外训练或奖励建模的无价值共识策略,通过多个未来预测的一致性进行候选路径排序。该策略在RoboCasa和RoboTwin 2.0上显著提升了成功率。综上,动作-状态一致性既可作为诊断工具评估WAM可靠性,也可作为无价值规划的实际信号。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
World Action Models (WAMs) enable decision-making through imagined rollouts by predicting future observations and actions. However, the reliability of these imagined futures remains under-examined: is a generated future merely visually plausible, or is it dynamically compatible with the action sequence it claims to model? In this work, we identify action-state consistency, the alignment between predicted actions and induced state transitions, as a missing reliability axis for WAMs. Through a systematic study across representative joint-prediction and inverse-dynamics models, we find that action-state consistency systematically separates successful and failed rollouts across many tasks and follows similar success-failure trends as learned value estimates. These results suggest that consistency captures decision-relevant structure beyond visual realism. We further identify background collapse as an important boundary condition, where low-dynamics failed trajectories can become deceptively consistent because static futures are easier to predict. Building on these findings, we introduce a value-free consensus strategy for test-time selection, which ranks candidate rollouts by agreement among predicted futures. This strategy improves success rates on RoboCasa and RoboTwin 2.0 without additional training or reward modeling. Taken together, our findings establish action-state consistency as both a diagnostic tool for evaluating WAM reliability and a practical signal for value-free planning.
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