固定每五批次重训,兼顾精度与效率,提升半导体制造质量预测可靠性。
Robust and Reliable AI for Predictive Quality in Semiconductor Materials Manufacturing with MLOps and Uncertainty Quantification

- 每五批固定重训,不调超参,降低计算开销
- 在突变与渐变漂移下均保持高精度
- 结合置信区间实现主动质量预警
半导体材料制造因工艺变化、设备退化和原料波动,导致模型性能随时间下降。本研究基于五年真实生产数据,评估MLOps重训策略,以控制限归一化残差为关键指标,比较不同重训频率与超参数优化方案。结果表明,每五批次固定重训、不进行超参数调优的方法,在各类漂移条件下表现最优,显著降低计算成本。同时,引入分位数回归与保形预测(conformal prediction),生成具有强统计保证的预测置信区间,实现当预测区间在可接受控制限内时的主动质量预警,将传统被动质检转变为预测性管理。研究为计算效率与可靠不确定性量化并重的制造场景提供实用MLOps指南。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Semiconductor materials manufacturing presents unique challenges for machine learning deployment due to evolving process conditions, equipment degradation, and raw material variability that can cause model performance deterioration over time. This study benchmarks machine learning operations (MLOps) retraining strategies using five years of real manufacturing data to identify optimal retraining approaches for quality prediction. We evaluate various retraining frequencies and hyperparameter optimization strategies using control limit normalized residuals as key performance metric. Results demonstrate that a fixed retraining cadence every five production batches without hyperparameter retuning achieves superior performance across all drift conditions while significantly reducing computational overhead compared to strategies incorporating hyperparameter optimization. This approach effectively maintains model accuracy during both abrupt process changes and gradual equipment degradation patterns. To address the critical need for uncertainty quantification in manufacturing decision-making, we implement conformal prediction to generate prediction confidence intervals with strong statistical guarantees. This enables proactive quality control by identifying when prediction intervals fall within acceptable control limits, transforming traditional reactive quality management into a predictive framework. The findings provide practical guidelines for implementing robust MLOps strategies in manufacturing environments where computational efficiency and reliable uncertainty quantification are paramount for operational success.
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