arXiv:2605.07964stat.MLcs.LG2026-05被引 1

用贝叶斯预测优化置信序列,提升效率且保证任意时间有效性。

Asymptotically Log-Optimal Bayes-Assisted Confidence Sequences for Bounded Means

  • 基于贝叶斯预测选择最优更新因子,自适应构建置信序列。
  • 在真实分布已知时,渐近对数增长接近最优,样本效率更高。
  • 适合需要高效、随时可检验的在线推断场景,如大模型评估。

基于检验鞅的置信序列可在不假设分布形式的前提下,对有界独立同分布观测值的均值提供时间一致的不确定性量化。然而其实际效率高度依赖于鞅更新方式的选择,而现有方法大多未利用关于数据生成分布或均值的先验信息。本文提出一种贝叶斯辅助框架,使用贝叶斯预测模型自适应构造置信序列。对于每个候选均值与时间点,预测分布从有效的一步鞅因子中选出使预测期望对数增长最大化的更新;即使先验或工作模型存在偏差,仍能保持有效性。我们证明,若预测分布为瓦瑟斯坦一致,则该方法渐近对数最优,其每样本对数增长可匹配拥有真实分布信息的基准程序。通过基于狄利克雷过程混合与贝叶斯指数倾斜经验似然的鲁棒预测实例化,实验显示:在合成数据、大模型评估中的顺序最优臂识别及预测驱动推断任务中,利用先验信息可显著缩小置信区间宽度并减少采样量,同时保持任意时间有效的覆盖性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Confidence sequences based on test martingales provide time-uniform uncertainty quantification for the mean of bounded IID observations without parametric distributional assumptions. Their practical efficiency, however, depends strongly on the choice of martingale updates, and many existing constructions do not exploit prior information about plausible data-generating distributions or mean values. We propose a Bayes-assisted framework that uses a Bayesian working predictive model to adaptively construct confidence sequences. For each candidate mean and time point, the predictive distribution selects, among valid one-step martingale factors, the update maximising predictive expected log-growth; validity is therefore preserved even when the prior or working model is misspecified. We prove that if the predictive distribution is Wasserstein-consistent, the resulting procedure is asymptotically log-optimal, matching the per-sample log-growth of an oracle procedure with access to the true distribution. We instantiate the framework using robust predictives based on Dirichlet-process mixtures and Bayesian exponentially tilted empirical likelihood. Experiments on synthetic data, sequential best-arm identification for LLM evaluation, and prediction-powered inference show that informative priors can substantially reduce confidence-sequence width and sampling effort while retaining anytime-valid coverage.

置信序列贝叶斯推断在线学习

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。